Saturday, August 11, 2007

Here's What Peak Oil Actually Looks Like

Roel sent me this excellent article by Chris Nelder, who offers up one of the first comprehensive overviews of how peak oil, with its permanent rise in energy prices, is affecting the third world. In short, as has been reported several times in the past on this blog - it has effectively reduced or eliminated their ability to provide oil for basic needs.

"But the actual feeling of peak oil didn't really hit me until this week, as I perused a page on Jim Kingsdale's excellent Energy Investment Strategies site, listing countries that are currently experiencing serious fuel shortages and grid blackouts.

Here in the first world, we still have the luxury of armchair theorizing about peak oil, and paying a bit more for gasoline, but the third world is actually feeling the pain of peak oil today. Rising oil prices are acting as a regressive worldwide tax, pricing poorer countries right out of the market.

Since their experience must to some extent herald ours as peak sets in, let's see how peak oil feels to those who are undergoing it firsthand."

I think many Americans who have never visited the third world really have no idea how dependent the infrastructure of even very poor people is on energy - that is, many people envision poor nations as existing without meaningful energy infrastructure, and in some rural areas, this is true. But most of the poor people in the world live in cities right now, and even rural places depend on outside infrastructure for things like roads, vaccinations, birth control and water pumping.

The disruption of energy supplies and infrastructure makes already poor people poorer. In places like Bangladesh, that use their electricity in, among other things, hundreds of pumping stations to keep back flooding, this magnifies the effects of climate change. Estimates suggest that right now, 30% of the country is underwater, or has been in the last week.

Thousands of basic needs are going unmet because the price of energy is simply too high for poor nations to compete with the rich ones. And the price of this is measured in lives. If you don't yet see the evidence for peak oil, you aren't looking in the right places.

If there was any major doubt about the change in the order of things, the IEA's announcement today that the Middle East is in immanent danger of becoming a net fuel oil importer ought to shake us. Stop and think about how bizarre notion is - the location of the largest known oil resources on earth, 3/4 of all proven reserves is going to need to import gas. Now some of this is a refinery shortage, but ask yourself this - with the middle east developing strong incentives to keep more and more of their oil at home, what does that mean for us?

Nelder's larger point, that peak oil is really only up for discussion in the rich world is central here. I would argue, however, that it is really only up for discussion in the richer *parts* of the rich world. For millions of Americans living near or below the poverty line, who may never have heard the term "peak oil," things are steadily getting worse. Food prices are rising, and are predicted to rise still further over the winter. If Goldman Sachs and others are right, we'll see $100 dollar a barrel oil pricing this winter, so it is little wonder that poverty abatement programs are overwhelmed with need for food supplementation, and fuel assistance programs are reporting overwhelming advance applications. Food pantries are reporting that two income families are more and more in need:

And, of course, if you are poor in the US you know that you too will pay with your life, probably well before the rich guy near you. US lifespans fell again against the rest of the world:, including against poorer nations that spend half of what we do or less on medical care. The news is worse if you focus in on specific areas - for example, residents of inner city Detroit have lifespans shorter than those in 26 poor nations:

The simple facts are these. Americans are prone to believe that poverty is the fault of the poor - and thus, to assume that inequity is largely a personal matter. Which means that as millions of Americans fall just a little further behind, as they lose their houses, declare bankruptcy, see their power shut off or their region's services disappear they will blame ...not the system, but themselves.

We have historically rationed things by price. Right now we are rationing energy by price in the third world and in our own country. Our problem to growing demand - the cheerily named "demand destruction." But demand destruction works two ways - in encourages the rich and reasonably comfortable to conserve a little. But it simply destroys the poor - it takes those who have no fat in their budgets, no room for accomodation, and while the rest of us are considering whether we should turn down the a/c a little, it kills people. It shuts down water treatment (which has killed millions in Iraq, mostly children), it interrupts medical treatments and disrupts roads so that needed supplies can't be transported. It disrupts society - if no one knows when or if the water will ever run again, it is very hard to decide what to do, where to go, how to move.

Demand destruction of the most ruthless type is coming our way. If you aren't poor enough to see it yet, be grateful, give a little more to your local poverty abatement programs, and wait a little bit. Our time will come too, unless we change our form of rationing.



e4 said...

Speaking of what peak oil might actually look like, have you read this yet? Not pretty. I don't envision the Mad Max thing if I can help it, but that was a sobering read...

Anonymous said...

Cormac McCarthy, The Road may give a more accurate description of peak oil.

We recommend the audio version of the book.

homebrewlibrarian said...

Wow, I read the blog that e4 linked. Sobering indeed...

Yesterday I attended a Renewable Energy Fair where the keynote speaker was Robert McFarlane, Pres. Reagan's National Security Advisor. Normally I'm not so interested in listening to anyone who had anything to do with Ronald Reagan but he was all over the Peak Oil issue. He was framing it in terms of national security (the money we spend importing oil from the Middle East is going into al Qaeda's pockets) but he was hitting all the right points. Earlier I had attended a session that explained what peak oil is (the speaker wouldn't state that we were already there but that we're within the range of when it will occur give or take five years or so).

What I liked about the presentation was that he just presented the facts, what other alternative energy forms existed but were not adequate to cover even the current demand for energy and that it's time to start taking a long hard look at how it will effect life, particularly in Alaska. Afterwards, I spoke with him briefly about my concerns with food security and he agreed with me that a major collapse in the lower 48 and Alaska is screwed. He told me there are about 7 days worth of food here, maybe another 2 weeks if the barges are headed this way when the collapse happens. Water could be an issue but not as much as some places. Alaska is covered in water resources and while the Park Service leaves signs that say they can't confirm the potability of the water in the parks, at least it's available without working too hard to get it.

Being poor is bad enough but being poor in Alaska if everything tanked would be bad beyond measure. I suspect the death rate would increase substantially, particularly in the winter. And not necessarily within the Native Alaskan communities. There is a significant military presence in Anchorage and Fairbanks but most of the people are enlisted and many have families. These families always seem to be riding the edge of poverty and often the military family member will have to take a second job to support the rest of the family. I'm not sure how much the military will put towards assisting their enlisted and dependent families if times got really tight. They haven't done much for them up to now so, sorry for being cynical but, I doubt they'll suddenly start acting humanitarian. Maybe for the officer corps. Maybe. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

If you want an eye opening view of what life could be like if there was an economic collapse in the US, read the blog that e4 linked. Scared the hell out of me but does offer up a lot of suggestions that would be useful even if it doesn't completely melt down and become the next Mad Max scenario.

Note to self: Put up more food.


Anonymous said...

Actually, I think that a collapse of the food system as it is at present here in the US would be helpful in lengthening our lifespan and improving our health. Americans in general eat way too much, and most of it is junk as well as have a lack of exercise. So a system of having to physically work as well as eating unprocessed local foods could do wonders for our health.....I think there is a silver lining here...

demond said...

"For millions of Americans living near or below the poverty line, who may never have heard the term "peak oil," things are steadily getting worse."

Wow, way to assume that "poor" equals "ignorant".

Anonymous said...

Given that most people in the US regardless of economic standing haven't heard of PO, or haven't connected the dots if they have, I don't think it's saying poor=ignorant.


BoysMom said...

Sharon, I believe you mentioned at one point that you lived with relatives at least for a time. Would you mind writing a column on how to merge households without mayhem and murder resulting? I expect that my family, and probably others who frequent here, are going to be looking at that in the months and years to come.

Bedouina said...

I read the Argentina blog and was so disturbed that I became irritable and snappish with my family. That's helpful, isn't it? Had to apologize to my handicapped 7-year-old for yelling at him. Ugh.

This stuff is emotionally upsetting and it's no wonder most folks don't want to think about it.

I don't want to leave my diverse, livable city but I am concerned that with hunger, poverty and breakdown of society, my neighborhood would become unlivable very quickly. OTOH we have a strong neighborhood group and people spend a good deal of time organizing and connecting. Maybe we will pull together...

Beck said...

I read part of the blog e4 linked to, and I wish I hadn't. The accounts of torture and rape bothered me, but what was particularly depressing was the undertone that "this is how things will be in an economic collapse, you're a fool if you think otherwise." Maybe I am a fool, but I have hope that people won't necessarily revert to a society of fear, brutality, and suspicion when things get tough.

Lisa in Oregon said...

I read that Argentina story a year or two ago, somewhere or another, and the subsequent discussion on some peak oil list seemed to come to a conclusion that it wasn't an acutal account of what was going on. It sure does a good job of being scary!

Kiashu said...

It's comforting to think that it's made up. I can't speak to the truth of the particular accounts of this individual, but the things he talks about happening in Argentina are a fair picture of the place as a whole, going by other accounts.

I think that it's possible that the readers here aren't aware of what a Third World country really looks like, what a shantytown is, how unemployed uneducated young men spend their days, and so on. And perhaps you've not seen enough of your own Western countries, either, the abandoned industrial suburbs, the homeless people, the drug-addicted and mentally ill on the streets, and by contrast the wealthy gated communities. It's one thing to be able to quote some statistic that the top 1% own more than the bottom 50% put together - but have you seen the bottom 10%? Many haven't and simply can't imagine it.

Having read lots of ARSE Brigade stories of gangs of roving mutant cannibals, this Argentinian's story seems to me actually as relatively optimistic and realistic, if we take it as a picture of a country after economic and social collapse. It's certainly more optimistic than the examples of state collapse in Somalia, Iraq or Zaire.

"Can USA citizens survive what we survived? Of course they can, though I think that there are too many that are not like you, many that don’t prepare, and take everything for granted. Those are the ones that will be responsible for the increase in the social unrest once the SHTF, those that were too lazy to take care of themselves before the SHTF, or that had gone soft through out the years, believing that the government will “take care of them because they pay their taxes”. But in the end, they will pull through. People will adapt, they always do. You’d be surprised."

Weaseldog said...

I agree that the Argentina account is similar to other reports I've read. I've found that on many forums, there's always someone there who will say that such and such story isn't true. I've had people call BS on me when I've related things that have happened to me. Some people have a need to live in an idyllic world designed for them, they'll disbelieve anything that doesn't fit their preconceptions.

There are also professional trolls on the internet. NetVocates is one such corporation that troll blogs for a fee, with extremely sophisticated software to detect posts that fall under their purvue. they track many thousands of blogs and have a full time staff devoted to pushing their customer's views.

Back on topic, here is an interesting article about Peak Phosphorus

sylvia said...

It's really becoming obvious to me that our media is doing the opposite of their jobs. The media have created so much busy-work for themselves, running around covering NY Fashion Week, the newest fad in decorative credit card slipcovers and the latest tips on how to ace an interview, they're not paying attention to the bigger picture. This many third world countries are starving for energy and it's not on the front page of any newspaper?

Ok, to be fair, the New York Times did run an article on Africa's electricity shortages (July 29 2007, "Toiling in the Dark: Africa's Power Crisis"), but the article stopped short of actually describing the root cause as a global shortage of energy.

The systems that deliver electricity or gas or heating oil to individual homes are insanely complicated, on the global level, and I guess that's why most journalists haven't connected the dots. But you don't need to dig too far into the subject to put together a plausible narrative for what's going on at the macro level, do you? Peak oilers get it. Why is it so tough for other people to grasp this?

I guess people really don't want to know. I mean, if they knew what their country's energy consumption was doing to other countries, they would have to get outraged and actually do something about it. Much easier to ignore the problem.

I'm spamming all of my more globally-conscious friends with this article. We'll see if I get any kind of response.

Anonymous said...

I read the e4 blog as well, and although I haven't lived in any third world countries, I have heard some stories (not good ones) from people who have.

Corruption on all levels is quite evident. Police get paid off or you end up in a place you don't want to be. Rapes happen. Robberies happen. Lots more and lots worse happens.

I cannot believe the Pollyanna attitudes of so many people here in the US. Most of them just haven't been touched by violent crime yet. They are still living in their protected little spheres.

If you walk down the wrong street at the wrong time or end up with someone you shouldn't be, it can easily happen to you in the US. I know. I was violently assulted at 19 by a person double my age. A male co-worker of mine was nearly strangled to death (for money) by some pissed-off men who followed him to the door of his Minneapolis hotel room.

The wrong friends or bad timing can do you in. Once the protective little spheres start disintigrating in the industrialized nations, the Argentine's accounts may get much more believable. I don't mean to frighten people, but get educated and be watchful, always. A little preparadeness can go a long way in an assult situation. Don't trust people, by nature, and don't believe everything in the mainstream news.

jewishfarmer said...

Thanks, E4 for the reference to this piece - I don't have a strong opinion on whether it is truthful or not, but I don't think it is such a poor portrayal of what I've heard of in Argentina that I'd completely dismiss it. I saw it back when it came out, and I've been places that were kind of like this.

Demond, as MEA pointed out, I'm not assuming poor=ignorant. I'm assuming most Americans are ignorant of peak oil, and that the poor are a subset of most Americans.

Boysmom, I'll write about living with Eric's grandparents at some point - thanks, that's a good suggestion.

Thank you all for the interesting responses.


Kiashu said...

I don't think the press and media are ignoring these issues. It's just that they report what's news. They report what's shocking, or surprising, or different.

I mean, here Down Under we get about 310 murders and manslaughters each year. 6 a week. You know, I don't see 6 stories of murders in the newspaper each week - maybe 1 every two weeks. They just report the remarkable ones, a kid beaten to death by his stepfather, a woman running down a cyclist because she was texting on her mobile phone, and so on.

It's much the same with other issues. So Malawi, say, had a blackout last week. "An African country has poor utilities. That's news?" the editor will say.

And really the information is out there. No-one with an internet connection or a library has any reason not to know about the world unless they choose to ignore things. I can read online English versions of newspapers from 100 or more countries. I can hear of an issue, google it and then have several textbooks' worth of information about that issue within an hour or so. At a library with an internet connection, I can do the same with the guidance of the librarian to make it easier. At a library without such a connection, still there'll be books and references about things, and I can follow it up if interested.

If people in the developed West don't have information about some issue, it's not the fault of the media, but their own fault. They didn't go looking. Should the media have to spoon-feed us like infants? "Open up and say ah... here are the issues of the day! Eat 'em up!"

But most people are too busy living their daily lives today to worry about tomorrow. Looking towards the future takes a certain kind of mentality. It's not really intellect or education, it's attitude and personality.

Alan said...

Setting aside whether or not the account of Argentine social and economic disorder is truthful or exaggerated, what's missing from the guy's story is any community response to the situation at all. Everything he talks about is how __he__ deals with bad situations, usually with firearms. His neighbors are neither helpful nor neutral nor hostile -- they're just not around. His personal situation seems to shift around depending upon what point he's trying to make. Sometimes he's in the suburbs, sometimes he's in an urban neighborhood, sometimes he's out in the country. But he never seems to have any friends or compadres, none of the steps he takes require community action, he never seems to get relieved from guard duty and yet he's hasn't (he thinks), gone stark, raving mad.

But, he has a large and costly arsenal of (mostly) anti-personnel weapons and spends large amounts of his (unsourced) cash on ammunition.

I saw several posts which dismissed this guy as one of the multitudinous gun advocates on the internet who devised this account to show off his personal take on how to arm yourself for apocalypse. His "back story" is primarily to give himself more credibility than your ordinary survivalist spouting off gets.

I have yet to see any other accounts that paint the situation in Argentina anywhere near as dire as this story. If there are other such accounts, I would like to see them -- preferably not written by some person whose actions are quasi-legal at best and require anonymity.

Bedouina said...

It's weird, because my friend just spent Christmas in Argentina - B.A. - with her relatives. I heard nothing of any of this from her. I'll ask though...

Anonymous said...

I want to second the request for a discussion on the issues with having other people living with you-beyond just nuclear family living. I have been thinking about this a lot recently- I am a single mom with a young adult son who is not living at home so I am now living alone. I currently do it all-but if times got tougher, the list of what I have to do would get longer-also, while I am currently strong and fit- that won't always be the case I would I have wondered what it would be like to have others living here. Having had some old friends visit and having spent some time with other old friends I realized that it would be critical to have the right people. In fact, I had initially assumed that if things got bad I would provide a place for old friends who live elsewhere if they were in need- but have revised that thinking having realized it would be dreadful. They would not only be useless- out of shape with no useable skills- but worse than useless- sleeping in til late, used to all sorts of comforts, etc...In fact, I despair for the wellbeing of all sorts of people I know from way back(high school and college friends)- who live city/suburban lives and just write checks for whatever needs doing.... I now realize I can't help them-at least this way-not that they have any sense they could need help- but wonder how to figure out who/what would work here.....

Anonymous said...

Sharon, when you write you "how create TEOTWAWKI in personal space by combining households essay" could you address those who will be moving in as well as those who will be providing space.

MEA (whose personal plan when her friends and relations show up is to pitch a tent in the garden for herself but can only imagine what sort of a horror she'd be as a houseguest until the end of time)

Kiashu said...

Alan, that's true that the Argentinian guy's story lacks any kind of discussion of community. However, he says he's in the top 5% in terms of wealth, and history shows that in a time of crisis, the response of the wealthy elites is to draw in to themselves protectively. At best they might create gated communities, but those are not true communities, they're just a group of individuals who share a wall.

If you want to see some talk of communities in Argentina, you have to look lower on the class ladder. There you find talk of local currencies and markets and that sort of thing. The accounts are out there. For example, here is one from 1998 describing their "Global Barter Network" which started even before the main crisis. A Japanese visitor to Argentina has a talk about it from 2001 here.

Just because some wealthy gun-toting guy doesn't talk about community much doesn't mean it's not there. It's the same in any country. Go to a fancy restaurant here in the city of Melbourne, you won't hear lawyers and accountants and stockbrokers talking about their local Neighbourhood House or the soup kitchen at St Vincent De Paul. The community's out there, and it is discussed a lot - as I said above, you just have to go looking for that information.

jewishfarmer said...

Alan, I think you make a fair critique, but then again, lack of community is often a product of your expectations - it is clear that the gentleman in question is someone who was expecting a violent crisis, and probably like many people with that expectation (think those who were defending their homes after Katrina) they found something of what they were looking for.

That doesn't mean that the violence in some places is imaginary, or that those of us who choose not to emphasize weapons might not want to change our minds at some point. But there is a degree to which one's circumstances depend on one's position and expectations.

I'm officially agnostic on the subject of violence - travelling and volunteering in the third world, I've seen a lot of it. I've also been a person without a gun in places where everyone had one, and found that sometimes, that was the safer position. But I don't totally dismiss this, because I think it is important for even those who reject the Rambo model to think about how deep their rejection of violence goes, and for those who accept it to think about the times when guns won't help.

Maybe because I'm a mother of young children, and know that at least half of all casualties in any violent situation are unintentional - spectators, civilians, the deeply unlucky - I know that shooting a major last resort, because even if I win, it would be so easy to lose.

Sharon in upstate NY

BoysMom said...

When you're thinking about firearms, don't just think about human confrontations.
I live not terribly far from Yellowstone. The reintroduced wolves have three times the population now that they were projected to have at this time. They aren't particularly frightened of humans: they've been killing the local ranchers' dogs within hundreds of feet of their houses. There are bears all over the place out here, mountain lions too. Any of these critters is perfectly capable of taking down a grown human, not to mention the livestock humans are relying on.

Jim said...

So. It's been pointed out that the developing nations, because of greater poverty and problems such as clean water, will suffer more from peak oil than the wealthier nations. While this is true, especially in terms of problems such as nations which cannot feed themselves without Western food aid or which have inadequate water, I did notice some things in Mexico.

I drove my car everywhere, save for my two–hour bus trip to Mexico City, and my subway travel from the Norte bus station to the Museo Nacional, and while I did I saw a lot of hand labor harvesting crops, a lot of people walking, using buses, riding bikes and horses and even using burro and horse carts to transport people and goods. Given that I avoided dirt roads and very remote areas, I naturally saw less of these things and more of the Americanized element in Mexican society. In the whole, there must be a greater representation of things such as horses and bikes in Mexico. Now, of course, peak oil will bring serious problems to Mexico, and it's one of the wealthier and more stable third–world nations (bizarre as this statement sounds to sheltered Americans, it's true). But it's a nation which has substantial numbers of people who are used to cultivating subsistence crops with hand labor, who understand gardening and basic polyculture and animal husbandry, who live in densely packed villages and towns and travel by buses (which could run on alternative fuels, though they'd be no cleaner), by horse or burro cart. The US doesn't have these things. How blind we are, sometimes, to how damaged we are by our wealth!

I am not saying that Mexico is utopia (Lord, no) or that its culture is somehow "better" than ours, but in some ways many areas of Mexico are going to be able to make do with their own crops and handmade goods and so on, whereas the useless suburbs of the US are going to be, well, useless.


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