Friday, December 28, 2007

You Heard It Here First...Sadly

Remember This: 350 Parts Per Million

Guess what - I'm starting to wonder whether I do have magic powers to predict the future (yeah, like common sense ;-)) - this blog, which has been going on for months about the notion that we have to cut emissions faster and harder than anyone has acknowledge turns out to have beaten even James Hansen and Bill McKibben to the punch. Why is it, I wonder, that my predictions are only right about things that suck?

"It means, Hansen says, that we've gone too far. "The evidence indicates we've aimed too high -- that the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2is no more than 350 ppm," he said after his presentation. Hansen has reams of paleo-climatic data to support his statements (as do other scientists who presented papers at the American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco this month). The last time the Earth warmed two or three degrees Celsius -- which is what 450 parts per million implies -- sea levels rose by tens of meters, something that would shake the foundations of the human enterprise should it happen again.

And we're already past 350. Does that mean we're doomed? Not quite. Not any more than your doctor telling you that your cholesterol is way too high means the game is over. Much like the way your body will thin its blood if you give up cheese fries, so the Earth naturally gets rid of some of its CO2each year. We just need to stop putting more in and, over time, the number will fall, perhaps fast enough to avert the worst damage.

That "just," of course, hides the biggest political and economic task we've ever faced: weaning ourselves from coal, gas and oil. The difference between 550 and 350 is that the weaning has to happen now, and everywhere. No more passing the buck. The gentle measures bandied about at Bali, themselves way too much for the Bush administration, don't come close. Hansen called for an immediate ban on new coal-fired power plants that don't capture carbon, the phaseout of old coal-fired generators, and a tax on carbon high enough to make sure that we leave tar sands and oil shale in the ground. To use the medical analogy, we're not talking statins to drop your cholesterol; we're talking huge changes in every aspect of your daily life.

Maybe too huge. The problems of global equity alone may be too much -- the Chinese aren't going to stop burning coal unless we give them some other way to pull people out of poverty. And we simply may have waited too long.

But at least we're homing in on the right number. Three hundred and fifty is the number every person needs to know."


McKibben is being cheery about the bad news, so I will be to. We've been given a huge and perhaps exciting challenge - how to entirely stop producing more industrial carbon emissions. And believe it or not, I've got a few ideas (doesn't she always you say, rolling your eyes ;-)).

Or rather, they are the same ideas. It turns out that Monbiot was far too conservative - he was trying to keep things at 450. This is going to require a fast and serious drop in our fossil energy use down to near 0. The fast part means we're going to have to prioritize - think hard about where we want to put our very limited carbon emissions. Building more renewables, keeping medical care and food supplies coming, enabling an educated populace - that's where they need to go, and that's where they should go.

I've been working on trying to create a model of life of some sort for a few years - not a perfect life. If I were perfect I would have had 1.5 kids, started before I was 30 and would be pedalling everywhere. But a model of an imperfect life in transition, making do with what I've got, the best I can. When I try and think about what my role in this is, it comes down to that - I'm an ordinary person, ordinarily selfish and cranky and lazy, greedy and flawed. So what I can do with my imperfect life, from my imperfect start, in my imperfect home with my limited funds and energies I believe others can do - or they will do it some other way and tell me, and I can tell others, so that there's one more model out there. It isn't a perfect solution, and maybe there's other work to be done that I should be doing. But maybe this is mine.

After we reallocate, our personal use is going to have to be done by our limited supply of renewables (that means we all get a little bit of energy to use) and our hands and feet, some animals and a complete change in our way of life. There is no model I've ever seen that enables us to do a very rapid (under a decade) build out of renewables, and keep the global economy going as is. We're simply entering uncharted territory. If we become serious about this, everything is going to change.

And everything will remain the same - we'll still be the people we are. We'll still care about the things we care about most - the people we love, keeping people healthy, cared for and fed, giving our kids a decent education, having good and honorable work to do. We'll do different work, different play, live different lives, but we'll still be us, and the things we always say we really care about - those will still be the things we can have.

We can do this. We have to, but more, we can.

Sharon

59 comments:

Theresa said...

I too know we can, but I despair as to how to get our politicians to really hear that we MUST.

Heather G said...

Thanks for the link. I've posted to my journal as well.

Ani said...

I hate to sound pesimistic- and it's not that I'm not trying to do my best and spread the word to others- but we are not going to get anywhere with this- or fast enough- if the vast majority of people are concentrating on other things be they making money, selling lots of stuff, vacationing, scoring a Wii, whatever. Our political leaders aren't there, our corporations are mostly involved in greenwashing at best, and scattered amongst all of this are those who are really trying. Again, I'm not sure what it will take for this great awakening to happen. Most people who are at all aware of climate change and peak oil are still waiting for the great techno-fix to arise that will leave us all continuing our lives as we know it while driving some cool plug-in electric car that's roomy and goes from 0-60 in a snap. Sorry- that's my take on this, cynical as it may seem. It doesn't mean I'm not trying- I've not given up-but again I don't see how this is going to happen in time......

I guess that I'd also have to see how frustrating I find it- I've had my one child, grow organic, live off-grid, drive a small efficient car and try to minimize my driving, take a bus when possible, don't fly, heat with wood-the works- not perfect but I'm trying- and I know darn well that my efforts aren't worth much overall until I'm joined by the majority of others- most of whom are blissfully using up resources and spewing carbon emissions with abandon.....

So in the event they'd like to join me, I'd be happy for the "company" and am living proof that cutting way back doesn't preclude having a satisfying life- but I don't see much interest in anything that resembles "sacrifice" of life as they know it- yes I know you're doing this Sharon, and Colin is, and GreenPa and a bunch of you who read these blogs- but do you realize how few in # we are on this earth?

Kevin (Gypsy) Rose said...

Ani,

I agree. There are plenty of folks talking, but very few doing. At this point, the scientists have done a good job at defining the crisis. The Al Gores have done a good job at raising awareness. What we need now is for the same attention to be given to the ordinary folks who have made the radical adjustments necessary to live earth-kind lives. We may be few in number, but those examples are critically important right now.

Building Gypsy Rose

Shaunta said...

It starts with a few and it grows. It has to. Eventually a tipping point will be met and then the majority will at least be aware. The best we can do is continue to try to help that point be reached. If everyone who worried that what they could do wasn't enough, and so did NOTHING, did as much as Ani instead, think of the impact!

Shaunta

Anonymous said...

Sharon, thank you for the link. I already sent it to my e-mail list.

I can relate to Ani's sentiments and I'm not giving up either.

The verdict is in -- once again. The science is clear. We have to embrace a sustainable and regenerative lifestyle NOW!

As the most opulent society in the history of humanity, we must reduce our footprint on the planet NOW. We have got to stop flying and driving, or at least reduce these to a minimum; stop eating industrial foods and animals; start growing our food and eating more plant-based and local foods; eliminate or reduce to a minimum usage of air-conditioning, water, fuels, etc.

The corrupt system so dependent on our over-consumptive ways would implode if we did not support it.

It is up to us!

Peace!

~Vegan/Leaving So. FL

Tina said...

I accidentally added this comment to another post.

Sadly Sharon, many of your predictions are likely to be seen to fruition...

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2634820320071226?pageNumber=4&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Tina

Rosa said...

Maybe we're not trying hard enough to reach people? I don't mean just preaching, but things like advocating for changed dress codes where we work, making things available for people for free or cash, putting our volunteer work into things like weatherproofing and teaching kids to grow food. Running a CSA means your production decisions are other people's eating habits. So does running a restaurant, a repair shop (I have to go *way* out of my usual biking distance to get shoes repaired), a resale store, a Freecycle list, or a community education class on any of a wide variety of skills.

I decided a long time ago that instead of searching for a "right livelihood" I would keep working corporate jobs and funnel time and money into good stuff from there...but lately (since I started working full time, really) I think that might not have been the right choice.

RAS said...

Well, the good news is that thanks to PO being past and Peak Coal on the near horizon, people won't have much choice but to cut back soon. Powerdown is coming will-we nill-we. And probably the collapse of industrial society with it.

Do you happen to know how the Natural Gas grid is holding up this winter? Kuntsler wrote sometime back about how the last bad winter we had (several years ago) almost caused the NG grid to go down, and that supplies were now so critical the next bad winter -which is clearly here -might do it. But I can't find any info on how supplies are doing.

Kiashu said...

Monbiot's original target of 350ppm came from the most recent IPCC report at the time. He has since updated his target to account for more recent changes.

To avoid "catastrophic climate change" which will come with temperature rises of 2C and over, the IPCC says we need to reduce to about 537kg of CO2e emissions each by 2050.

That's not much CO2e for us. If you look at the figures for what causes how much emissions, you find that petrol use is impossible, as is conventionally-farmed meat production, getting electricity from coal and so on. Basically you need to reduce electricity use and change to using power from wind turbines, travel only on mass transit, and eat only food produced locally with no fossil fuel inputs. Nope, "organic" food ain't good enough - they use tractors to farm the fields, and trucks to move the food to the markets.

However, it's worth bearing in mind that this reduction to 537kg or so, the IPCC doesn't expect it to be instant. They're saying, "if we reduce from where we are now (3,580kg) to there (537kg) by 2050, then we'll avoid catastrophic climate change. If not, then we're toast."

It's a bit like saying to a seven year old that to graduate high school, she needs to pass differential calculus and French. That seems impossible to a seven year old, but ten years later it doesn't seem so bad.

Likewise, for us to achieve just half a tonne of emissions, when the world as a whole does seven times that, and Australia and the US do fifty times that, well that seems impossible. But to do it 42 years is not so hard.

Of course, the child has to go to school for about half the year for ten years to manage it. If she can't do simple addition and subtraction now, she's never going to even reach the calculus class. Sure, "two and two is four" is a long way from calculus. But she has to start somewhere.

In the same way, we've got to do some basic reductions in our lives. Sure, turning off appliances when not in use, taking the train and eating less meat, they're not much, and it's a long way from that big change we really do need. But we've got to start somewhere.

Ani said...

Well that's a good point, in that we find it overwhelming to look at reaching our emissions goal overnight but if we take it in steps we can see that it could be possible.And I don't discount the gains made when people do the incremental steps, be it changing bulbs or driving less. I just don't see us as a world making the preparations needed for not only everyone doing these steps but the world as a whole doing the larger pieces that need to happen.

I know from playing around with various on-line calculators- both eco-footprint and carbon emissions, that the biggest contributor by far to both my footprint and emissions is my driving. But I've reduced it to what I reasonably can given my situation living in a rural area. I've come to realize that unless I can find a way to earn a living from home-and even farming as I do p/t still requires getting the produce to a market- and unless I am willing to basically stay here alone- not a healthy thing to do day after day as I live alone- winter especially- esentially I would be totally marginalized both financially and socially- and although I can and do live on a low income, the property taxes are a real issue here.... So I think that until we find a way as communities to solve the issue of needing to always drive someplace- it is impossible or at least very difficut for an individual or family to surmount the obstacles to make as much headway as needed on this.

So although my footprint is way lower than most in this country, it's not low enough- and unless/until I can deal with the car/transportation issue, I can't get it any lower. So it seems to me that we desperately need to provide some sort of infrastucture- be it transportation, social or employment- likely all three, in order to make headway on this. Individuals can find a way to go off-grid or decrease their elec. use to minimal amounts, grow food or buy locally grown, consume less, recycle, heat with wood if possible, the works- but these other issues are the real biggies....

TH in SoC said...

I first learned about Peak Oil in February of this year. What I learned eventually motivated me to relocate from Southern California to Oregon in September of this year. Now that I'm here, I have several questions:

1. How does one sustainably heat a house (albeit a small house) without generating a lot of CO2 in a place where it seems to rain all the time?

2. How does one dry clothes in a place where clotheslines can't be used very often?

3. I have a developmentally disabled relative who still lives in California. How does one find care options for a developmentally disabled adult relative in a state like Oregon which does not have a very strong social system for providing care for developmentally disabled people?

There are many more questions, but these are the most urgent for me right now. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

To the poster above, I can't help on questions 1 and 3, but we have the same problem with no dryer, no clothesline, no yard, and plenty of rain. We use drying racks indoors, placed near a heat source if need be. I don't recommend flimsy ones with plastic parts as they break. We've had good luck with all wood ones and the very capacious and study metal one Ikea makes.

Sue said...

To Th in Soc:

I live where it's arid, but we don't dry our laundry outdoors because it's usually windy and dusty, and the laundry would dry sure enough, but need a re-wash!

We occasionally use an indoor drying rack such as this: http://tinyurl.com/238r8d
but only when we need extra drying space, since it takes up nearly our whole living space (in a really tiny house). Normally we dry clothes using a line strung along the bedroom wall: http://tinyurl.com/2clrs3 plus the shower rod and one of these: http://tinyurl.com/2slpvz in the bathroom.

Sue
Western Great Basin

Rosa said...

Ani, a lot of the changes we need to make are structural changes - I don't drive much, compared to other Americans. But we have this great big house and it takes a lot of energy to heat. It's going to take us at least a few years to get out from under this house.

Sometimes I feel like I'm living completely contrary to my beliefs. I believe we need to do carbon reduction...but my partner doesn't want to invest money in the house because we're planning on moving, and I see that...I want to not travel so much...but I want my son to be close to his wider family...and I don't want to live where the rest of our family lives, either. So I'm not really following through on my beliefs like I want to. It's painful sometimes. Yet, I do value all these other things (my partners comfort/buy-in level, my family, having a cash reserve which we'd lose if we sold our house right now).

I'm starting to think it's another part of the transition pain, like the effort involved in changing habits.

Anyway, what I wanted to suggest is that if you can do something like host winter guests for weeks instead of days, or find a place in town to stay during the week and just go home during the weekends in winter...it really depends on your responsibilities and resources, but there are things you can do to *reduce* how often you drive, without eliminating your car dependence.

miles said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ani said...

Rosa-

I think that many of us are trying to figure it out- and we have to work with what we've got to work with basically. In my case I heat with wood and live in the far north-thus can't be away in winter-so this creates its own issues. Obviously if I could work from home and if my community were really interested in getting together more- not just a few times/year- it could be different. Also- where I live most everyone has a looong drive to work- 1 1/2 hrs one way or more in some cases- but no attempt to car-pool even- this could be different. I think that what it comes down to is that most people are invested in their nuclear families and community is an extra- when they have time for it. We won't see real change unless/until it becomes too hard for people to continue doing what they're doing in my opinion( for what that's worth.....)

th: re; the question on heating and laundry- wood heat is considered to be ok and renewable- and if you use drying racks-wash stuff often so you don't have huge amounts of it or use a retractable clothesline indoors- it dries well I find. I wash my clothes my hand year-round- and dry outdoors on the line when I can and indoors when I can't- mostly works- the main thing is to get stuff to dry fast enough so it doesn't get mildewy.....blech...

I don't pick a cloudy/rainy/showy day to do sheets or blankets for instance- got to be flexible- no "Monday is wash day" here...

jewishfarmer said...

I should clarify - I think we will do a massive ramp down, one way or another, but I don't think that political will will be gathered in any way other than response to a disaster we simply can't write off. My bet, however, is that that will come soon - perhaps even soon enough, horribly. Given that we wrote off Katrina, the British floods, etc... I shudder to think about what that would look like, but I think it will probably happen.

Sharon

Ani said...

Sharon-

I too despair at what level of disaster would be necessary to actually get people's attention- but keeping their attention focused seems to really be the issue. The disaster of the moment be it CA wildfires, Katrina or whatever are on the front pages of the paper and on the TV for a short while and then they are replaced by the latest celebrity gossip or sports or whatever. People seem to have such short attention spans. And then there is the issue of not having the disaster actually directly affect you- the old joke about how a recession is when your neighbor loses his job and a depression is when you lose yours isn't too far off I'd say.

Have a Happy New Year anyway-

craig morris said...

I have read you blog for a while and find it very useful. The sad fact is that most people won't make significant changes in lifestyle until circumstances force it. Most of my acquaintances are tired of hearing (from me) about peak oil. They think it is loony and won't take it seriously until there are gas lines. Sharon, you are preaching to the choir but then we in the choir really appreciate it.

Anonymous said...

Rosa said:

Ani, a lot of the changes we need to make are structural changes - I don't drive much, compared to other Americans. But we have this great big house and it takes a lot of energy to heat. It's going to take us at least a few years to get out from under this house.


I have wondered what will happen to all the very large houses housing approx 3 people.

Of all the houses being forclosed how many are large, med, small?

I have also read that banks loose money on forclosures (I had assumed they at least broke even).

So as Sharon has mentioned before what about renting rooms? What about officially changing some portion into an apt? I know some zoning laws forbid making apt but they need not know about room renters :).

Also why don't banks just reduce the monthly morgage on some of these houses. From what I've read they'd loose less than forclosing.

I guess my house is med but if I cleaned out my basement :) I could house quite a few more folks either in a traditional way or dormitory style if the shtf and too many friends and family showed up.

I am begining to feel some urgency to prepare my house for others. Such as:
room in basement for usable furniture (lots of furniture there if one could find it).

I'd like one of those cold rooms one can build in a basement, its like a root cellar but is simply a walled off space (with window)open or close window to keep cool.

Thow some paint on some walls for pretty :)in main house.

Fix one really ugly bathroom.

We already are out of dept, live and work on a farm (CSA) have a wood stove .

Beth in Massachusetts

A few extra hands might be good :)

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Rosa said...

Beth, we always had roomates until last year, between one and three other adults. I just can't cope with the extra work of being a landlord, on top of having a toddler and a fulltime job. Which is why we're aiming for a smaller house. Living with people requires a set of skills and competencies that take effort to learn and practice, and I'm just about out of effort.

Also, our house is old (1902) - no closets, one bathroom, and cold (57 degrees) and on a corner lot (lots and lots and lots of shoveling. There's no attached garage. Our neighborhood is racially mixed (I like to think you'd be as amazed as I was how many people think of this as a negative) and living here means living with a family with a toddler. We usually interviewed 10-15 people before we found a good enough fit, and none of those turned into relationships of more than about a year.

With rents down from a peak in 2001 or so, the pool of competent, sane people looking for cheap housing is smaller, and we just don't meet most of their standards - we are *way* too mainstream for the activist/traveler kids, and way too weird for the people who call up and ask "would I be safe walking in from my car at night in THAT NEIGHBORHOOD?"

So I think the answer for us is to move. But we aren't moving anytime soon, in this housing market there are some cosmetic repairs we have to do just to sell. Also, we do have to worry about the economy pushing the neighborhood downhill - we're already starting to see boarded-up houses.

void_genesis said...

In the long term there will probably losers and winners in the global warming etc shakeout. Agriculture originally happened during a period of intense cold and dry when it was a way to hang on in marginal climates, then when things got warmer and moister again it expanded out into the empty and newly fertile habitats. A further warming and moistening may see agriculture expand into regions where it wasnt possible before. Population levels will change, but we don't really know what the limit on human population is. It was expanding before the industrial and green revolutions, they may have just speeded up the rate of growth rather than changing the absolute carrying capacity. Agriculture is a very different beast now from what it was hundreds of years ago. Apart from all the recent technology just having a much wider range of crop species from all over the world makes it a more resilient system than it was before medieval times. And as much as many people fear it genetic modification may eventually lead to a whole different way of existing in the world, even changing who we are in fundamental and surprising ways.

So I don't despair, because we wont know what is going to happen until it has happened. In the mean time though industrial society is looking shaky, so make some alternate plans. But be prepared to be surprised to some extent.

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