Thursday, December 27, 2007

Here Be Dragons: Predictions for 2008

Ok, last year I made some (quite tongue in cheek) bets, and it is interesting to me to see how they stood up - you can see them here:

History and the New Year

Generally speaking, my predictions (which weren't exactly going way out on a limb or anything) were pretty much right, except for Israel and Syria - it was Iran, not Venezuela, and the interest rate hikes were met by later cuts, but overall, I called it - more or less. I promise, this surprises me more than anyone. And I suspect that "the year of hanging on by our fingertips" wasn't a bad way to describe the last year.

My intuition is that in 2008, we'll no longer be able quite to hang on. I'm going to call 2008 "The Year of Dragons" - that is, the year we get off of all the maps we've had and enter uncharted territory. once upon a time, the parts of the maps that were unknown bore the sign "Here be Dragons" - I think this is the year we'll begin getting to know the dragons on the other side of our understanding.

So here are my predictions - and again, let me reiterate that the thing that I hope makes me marginally credible is this - I do not believe that every single idea I pull out of my ass...er head is the absolute truth. And if I don't, you certainly shouldn't.

But here goes.

1. This year, the words peak oil will go mainstream, but this mainstreaming will not be matched by a subtle or nuanced understanding of what the words mean. That is, peak oil will be used for political purposes, and not necessarily ones anyone will approve of.

2. By the end of the year, there will begin to be runs on preparedness equipment and food storage, a la Y2K.

3. The NeoCons will not go gently into that good night - there will be at least one serious surprise for us. G-d willing, it won't involve the word "nukuler" or any of its cognates.

4. Hillary will not win the 2008 election. Neither, despite all the people who keep sending me emails saying he will, will Ron Paul.

5. The economy will tank. Yup, I'm really going out on a limb here.

6. Many of us will find we are being taken more seriously than we ever expected. We will still be taken less seriously than any celebrity divorce, however.

7. We'll see food riots in more nations and hunger will increase. The idea of Victory Gardens won't seem so crazy anymore.

8. The biofuels craze will begin to be thought the better of - not in time to prevent the above.

9. We will see at least one more image of desperate people, walking out of their city becuase there's no other alternative. And a lot of images of foreclosures.

10. TEOTWAKI, if it ever happens, will be delayed long enough for my book to be released this fall and to make back at least the advance, so my publisher won't have any reason to try and sue me ;-).

Ok, that last is more of a prayer than a prediction - the bad thing about writing books for a publisher that deals a lot with peak oil and climate change is that the words "if everything doesn't go to hell in a handbasket" are actually included in the legal documents (ok, I'm joking).

Those are my bets, folks. We'll reconvene in late December of next year to make fun of me and my predictions. In the meantime, a happy, safe, healthy and hopeful New Year to all!

Shalom,

Sharon

57 comments:

Ani said...

Sounds about right-curious as to what you mean by Peak Oil going mainstream but not necessarily being used as we'd wish though?? I'm kind of grossed out by "buying green"and stuff at present- will Peak Oil be a new buzzword to buy stuff??

RE: elections-I tend to agree with you re: Hilary- any predictions on who will win? Or- how about who the Democrat and Republican candidates will be? I'm discouraged by all of them at present- don't see them talking about what needs talking about.....

Have a Happy New Year

(and btw if the temp gets up to 60 in my house(main room where the stove is)-I'm doing good! I'm not sure what the uproar was about in the other post.....

riverbird said...

some may think it aall wacky new-agee bs, but i do oracle work around my locaal community. last week i did a very brief overview spread for 2008 - what came up? Fire Dragon.

for my political plug, i think john edwards is bests suited to lead us through this next period - he seems to be the only one caught on the corporate problem, he aand kucinich.

Apple Jack Creek said...

Sharon, you got me thinking. That was your intention, I'm sure ... and ... you succeeded. :)

(This is Frazzlehead, from the HT board, by the way.)

I hadn't really thought at all about Peak Oil or any of this kind of thing, until I started reading your blog. I have taken a break from media in general, and so it never trickled into my awareness. That said, about two years ago, I felt ... well, the Quaker term is "a Leading" ... a call, a need, a desire, a real calling ... to move to 6 acres out in the country. This was totally out of the blue. It didn't go away, though, and I followed the Call, and here I am. I also found a wonderful man to be part of this life, and although he thinks I may be a bit of an alarmist, he doesn't seem to have any problem with what he calls "future proofing". Yep, I am where I need to be.

We have a mostly solar powered house, a well, a septic system ... and I think ... oh my .. the Light was telling me to get my butt out here while I still could, and to start to build the life we will all need in the coming darkness.

Thanks for helping me see what may be coming (well, what most likely IS coming) and to focus my preparations a bit more clearly.

I just got a raise at work (I work in IT, supporting - gasp - agribusiness). I made a decision today (which is supported by my family) to take a portion of that extra money and put it into what I call the Umbrella Fund: things to cover our heads when The Sky Falls. I just ordered a bunch of books (most recommended by you, thank you), and will set aside funds each month for 'sustainable infrastructure stuff' that we might not have otherwise purchased ... grain mills, sausage grinders, buck saws, sustainable living books...

So ... thank you. Thank you for going out on that limb and saying to the rest of us "Really, people ... there is trouble brewing. Get ready. Here's how."

I'm not quite all there, but I'm getting there ... one small step at a time. In my mind, I call it "making hay while the sun shines." I'm getting decent money at the moment ... so I'm gonna invest it into things that will make living in an oil-depleted world more do-able for me and mine (and those we end up taking in). My son is almost 12, and he said the other day that when he grows up, what he wants to do is make the world a better place. I told him that was a good plan ... because the world's going to look quite a bit different by the time he grows up. I'm a lucky mom - he already thinks 4-H animals, free range poultry and gardening are good ideas. :)

Thank you. Really. Thank you.

Tina said...

Check out Dennis Kucinich (and his wife) on the topic of Peak Oil and Ron Paul :)

Tina said...

Oops. Sorry. Here is the link:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=HjiGuOsKr04

If it doesn't work You Tube search Kucinich and Peak oil. It is the first link.

Tina said...

Sadly Sharon, many of your predictions are likely to be seen to fruition...

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN2634820320071226?pageNumber=4&virtualBrandChannel=0&sp=true

Tina

roel said...

The economy won't just tank. 12 months from now we won't recognize what we have then as being linked to what we call our economy now. We will have millions of foreclosures, we will have bank runs, we will lose millions of jobs, major banks will go the way of the dodo, most vulnerable today are Citi (US), Barclay's (UK), CIBC (Canada).

Major banks so far have written down $70 billion. This will rise to $700 billion before summer, and could by then be over $1 trillion, if enough people, no, not subprimers, but middle class, walk away from their mortgages. Unemployment will make that far more feasible than we now realize.

That $1 trillion write down is just the start: many more trillions will vanish into thin air, never to be heard from again.

Peak oil is not our most imminent issue, and neither is climate change. Money is the most pressing. We will run out of cash, as a society, to buy our way out of the problems that energy scarcity and a warming planet confront us with. 99% of us will also run out on an individual basis.

How's that for a prediction?

Vidad said...

Yeah. I think the economy is toast. It's amazing it's held on this long.

For anyone with a savings account or mutual funds, you might want to think of trading some of that for gold. It's still undervalued in terms of historic levels.

But... that advice probably sounds just as crazy as growing a victory garden, I'm sure. ;)

Thanks for the predictions.

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