Sir Nicholas Stern, the current greatest authority in the world on the economic consequences of global warming visited congress recently, and during his testimony reiterated his phrase that global warming is "the biggest market failure ever seen." The economists on the panel didn't much like the claim, of course, because they didn't think that things like loss of species diversity and extinctions really could come under the definition of market failure. But Stern held his ground on this one.
But, of course, global warming is not an example of market failure in the classical sense: market failures happen when the market does not efficiently allocate goods and services, and when some kind of central organization would work better. But that would imply that the failure to address externalities (carbon and methane emissions included) is a market failure, an error in a functioning system, rather than an integral part of the markets themselves. No wonder the economists don't like the idea that this is market failure - because the markets are failing because they are operating as intended.
Acknowledging this is an indictment of the system, and a recognition that the problem of global warming is fundamentally a problem of the way markets do business. The markets of growth capitalism operate efficiently because they are able to offload consequences on to the general public. Admitting that externalities are the origin of a big old, planet destroying market failure might make us reconsider whether we should be letting human beings with brains and ethics decide how our economy works rather than magic fairies with invisible hands.
I'd be inclined to argue with Sir Nicholas on one point though - global warming may not be the biggest example, at least if we're talking about scale. In terms of, oh, potential destruction-of-all-human-life, climate change is the biggies, but in terms of markets creating the largest possible failure to allocate goods and services wisely, in a way that could have been better handled by a six year old with an abacus, that market failure prize would go to the gigantic economic disaster known as industrial agriculture.
Because, of course, it turns out that the most efficient way to grow food is to have a lot of people grow it in small scale organic polycultures. I've pointed this out before but even the World Trade Organization now admits that this is true, so there really isn't that much dispute. Peter Rosset's research on agricultural scale took place in dozens of countries and in every agricultural model conceivable shows that small scale, polyculture farms of 4-100 acres have a per acre output many times greater than industrial agriculture.
In study after study in journals like Nature, organic agriculture yields the same or better than industrial agriculture. In trials traditional rice paddy cultivation methods outyielded industrial models. Why don't we know this? Because we've been lied to. We've been told that GMOs and Cargill are our only hope. But right now, 2 *billion* people on this planet (according to the UN) are living entirely off of small scale organic or largely organic polyculture - this methodology is feeding more people than lived on the planet for most of human history. And they are doing it on marginal land for the most part, having been pushed off the best land by export crops and industrial farming. What could they, what could we do if the best land in the world was used for feeding the people who lived on it?
It also is the case, as again even the evil WTO has to admit, that when agricultural jobs are lost, only about 1/2 of what is lost is made up in the rest of the economy - most of the people displaced from their farms end up much worse off, which is, of course, bad for the economy as a whole. The next billion people added to the planet are almost all going to be urban slum dwellers, and they don't contribute a lot to the overall wealth of the world. So even if you have no scruples about displacing farmers from their land, it doesn't make anyone richer or better off to do so.
And it doesn't make people happier either. Farmers who are conveniently relieved by the industrial economy of the terrible burden of their work have a disquieting habit of killing themselves. It turns out that terrible drudgery was something they loved passionately, and their relationship with their land was central enough to their lives that giving it up destroys them. Whether the farmer lives in Wisconsin or India or Korea or Columbia, they often die or end up impoverished and miserable when you take away their land to feed the growth economy. Again, whether or not you have any ethical scruples about killing people and destroying their relationship with their land, it turns out that it doesn't make anyone's lives better, except, perhaps the tiny number of rich people who always benefit. Coincidence, huh?
So we are growing less food than we could, creating less wealth than we could, making more people unhappy about their food choices than we could, plus killing some farmers. That, folk, would be major, large scale, serious market failure. Because in agriculture, for the most part, economies of scale - aren't. Makes me wonder whether it might not be true for other things. It certainly is true of global warming, where we're considering sacrificing our own lives to keep the economy going - because we can't imagine our lives without the magic market faeries to save us.
Here's the real, sneaky truth. If the free market is willing to kill us, and let people go hungry for its functioning, then human beings have come to serve the markets, rather than the other way around. We're the slaves of something that has no mind, no soul, no ethics, nothing other than an endless, gaping need for growth. In fact, the growth economy devours its young. Way back when in the middle ages, Christians used to have this thing about interest - they believed that allowing money to make money without anyone doing any work was creating something out of nothing, and that was territory only for G-d, not for man. It allowed money to take the place of G-d. Well, it turns out that the early Christians were right. Not only does it take the place of any other gods, but it isn't a friendly, long hair and a robe kind of divinity - we're talking Cthulu with the dripping fangs, people.
It isn't market failure. It is our failure - our failure to recognize that we have devoted ourselves to a god that will destroy us. And the best solution to that one is a good, rousing, old fashioned, throw-the-golden-calf-on-the-fire rout of the false gods.
Where's my pitchfork and torch?
Sharon in upstate NY
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
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48 comments:
I worked for an advertising agency right out of college about eight years ago. My agency handled Cargill and American Cyanamid (herbicide) accounts. I do recall my extreme desire to upchuck one day as I sat in a conference room with agency clients, listening to one of them jest about the money made off the American farmer.
I have watched a degradation of my family's Wisconsin farm over the past 20 years. It went from buildings in need of a little repair to an uninhabitable mess. No windows on outbuildings, peeling paint, and leaking roofs. Depression, guilt, and disgust. A father who won't give it up in fear of the developers inching their way into the townships he holds land on. Watching farmers around him sell out and build new globs of plastic and vinyl homes on the edges of their old cornfields. Whoops . . . why is there so much nitrogen in our water? At least we have a good view. Yeah, of the developers coming in to pound a sign. "Shit Ridge. Come In and Enjoy the Good Life. Lots Starting at $35,000."
I wish I could help my family out but there is no saving it. When my grandfather quit farming in the 70s, that was the end of it all. Back then, Wisconsin farmers made a huge jump in scale. Instead of 20 cows, they started milking 60. Instead of 80 acres, they began farming 280. More inputs, more outputs, but less return. Can you say law of diminishing returns? The milk prices have not changed in a quarter of a century. Yet, you go to the store and buy a gallon of name brand 2%, it costs you $2.59. HEY, it's the same as a gallon of gas right now. How 'bout that, huh??
Our markets failed us long ago here in Wisconsin. Everything is outsourced and we are left with nothing. Now we are being exploited for our resources. The lastest grab bag is a Tezas company who has proposed a silica sand mine in a neighboring township of ours. 100 trucks per day, moving dirt and sand.
When the hell are people ever going to realize the magnitude of the problems we have on our hands? Climate destruction, peak oil, water shortages. I can't look at my kids and not want to do SOMETHING. I just wish all the people I know would start seeing it too.
Paula in Wisconsin
Sharon, pointed me here. I'm glad he did. I saw you speak last September in Yellow Springs.
This post reminds me of Daniel Quinn's writings. Another Peak Oiler at the 2005 conference in YS recommended his work. I wouldn't be surprise if you've already read at least Ishmael, but I strongly recommend all his books.
- Steve Bean, Ann Arbor
Sharon,
First let me say that I had a very strong, gut level negative reaction to the imagery of the golden calf. If you want me to explain why, I will in a separate comment.
Secondly, let me say that this is the first time we have disagreed. I do not think that the ‘market’ has failed, either on the issue of agriculture or global warming. I think it is operating exactly as intended. The myth that the purpose of markets is to allocate goods and services efficiently is just that: a myth. It’s one of those cultural fictions that are so prevalent in our society. Just like the one that says anyone can make it in this country as long as they work hard enough. What the markets are really designed to do is quite simple: concentrate more and more wealth into the hands of the all ready wealthy, while passing the costs and the burdens along to everyone else. And at that, the markets have succeeded admirably.
Not that this is a good thing, but there it is. Down with markets!
P.S. Have you seen this yet? http://www.alternet.org/envirohealth/49162/ I can't wait until they list the polar bear as an ES -I am going to have SO much fun terrorizing the local developers and the corrupt city planning officials. They think they hate me now -just wait!
Please point out those economists who don't view externalities such as pollution as market failure.
Issues of species diversity are actually a specific type of market failure; missing markets.
The real debate is not in admitting the presence of externalities, but thinking about the least distortionary solution. For environmental externalities, the thinking has moved from command-and-control to emissions fees and, increasingly, tradeable permits, illustrating the importance of using the power of markets even to correct sources of market failure.
You are guilty of two logical errors. First, you falsely claim that a large unnamed group favors purely unregulated markets, which is a fiction, pure and simple. You would be hard-pressed to find any market that operates free of any government regulations. Second, you characterize any market outcome with which you disagree as being inherently inefficient, when it is clearly only "inefficient" according to your own notion of a "fair" outcome.
I would be willing to bet that you would howl loudly if someone confronted you with the truth about the efficiency of centrally-planned economies, but there is an important lesson to be learned from these examples that markets are, in most cases, the most efficient mechanisms for organizing production and allocating resources. Reliance on non-price mechanisms simply does not work. The problem is that incumbent firms frequently seek to enlist government protections (e.g. regulations) that solidify their advantages.
This is not an argument against any and all government regulation, but rather an observation that government regulations need to be designed so as to minimize distortions and allow for the price mechanism to operate.
One of the problems facing American agriculture is the unchecked growth of buy-side market power, which has resulted in a decline in the ratio of farmgate-to-retail prices for many agricultural commodities, including fluid milk. This is another form of market failure, not an externality, but rather market power in the form of oligopsonies. Antitrust laws currently exist to address this growth in market power, if only they were enforced. In some markets, like butcher hogs, the problem has finally caught the attention of senators from agricultural states who are trying to curb oligopsony power among packers.
Finally, arguments based on emotion: farmers who move off their land are "often" miserable, depressed and end up killing themselves probably are a somewhat effective rhetorical device in garnering sympathy for your opinions, they do not stand up to close scrutiny. Just what is often, other than a handy way of avoiding the introduction of empirical evidence on frequency.
You might also want to do a bit more research that small-scale, labor-intensive organic methods always outyield "industrial" agriculture. Please check back when you find 500 bu/acre corn yields from small-scale organic polyculture.
Sharon, as always an excellent post. I would just bring one issue out more clearly, though: the talk of "efficiency".
Both large-scale monoculture and small-scale polyculture are efficient, and inefficient.
Large-scale monoculture is resource inefficient and labour efficient.
Small-scale polyculture is resource efficient and labour inefficient.
So if you have cheap resources and expensive labour, you favour arge-scale monoculture, as in the West. But if you have expensive resources and inexpensive labour, then you favour small-scale polyculture, as in the Third World.
The issue is that we only have cheap resources in the West because there is cheap labour in the Third World. Third World cheap labour gives us First World cheap resources. So the labour efficiency of large-scale monocultures can only exist on the backs of underpaid Third World resource workers.
That, of course, is a consequence of our unfree market; because of US, Japanese and EU subsidies of their own resource sectors, the Third World can only sell their resources dirt cheap, which keeps their wages down. Western subsidies depress Third World wages.
So the market is failing because we're interfering with it, subsidising the West at the expense of the Third World. If we had a freer market, while wealth would be concentrated in the hands of already wealthy people, we'd also get a redistribution from the West and outwards. And then resources would become more expensive, labour cheaper, and we'd have more small-scale polycultures happening.
The "resource" that is scarce in developing countries is capital. Differences in relative factor prices across countries do not create inefficiencies, they lead to different production techniques.
If you remove all agricultural subsidies in developed countries, you will raise food and fiber prices in developing countries, which will: (1) disproportionately benefit fiber growers in developing countries and encourage more monoculture; and (2) increase food prices in the majority of developing countries that are net food importers.
Before you complain too loudly about distortionary policies in the developed countries, you might want to look at tariffs across countries, which are orders of magnitude more distortionary and highest in the developing countries.
The fact is that the power and efficiency of markets is sorely missing in many developing countries. Moreover, institutions matter. Without well-defined property rights, the rule of law, and a professional civil service, many of the other reforms are tinkering at the margins.
One final thought: Anyone lining up to decry the inefficiency of minimum wage legislation? Of course not, that's a pet policy that is sacred even though it does little to increase the real income of the working poor. If people supported expansion of the EITC with 1/100 of the zeal with which they champion minimum wages, the standard of living of the working poor would increase significantly.
Sorry you don't like the golden calf, RAS, but we all have our taste in metaphor, and this is mine - I'll write my way, you write yours and no hard feelings.
Perhaps I was too subtle in my post - that's what I was getting at - that markets are operating exactly as intended. Ah well - you get some, you miss some.
Son of the middle border, I find that those with a strong taste for conventional economics and I simply aren't going to agree, so I won't bother discussing it. You see farmer suicides as a rhetorical coincidence, I see them as integral to what markets do - you think centrally planned economy and think "Sov Union" (presumably), I think the same and think of America in WWII - never yet had anyone persuade me that the market would have built those bombers faster. I do understand the distinction between free and laissez faire markets - I simply see the problem as more fundamental than you do.
I don't think we're going to agree, but feel free to keep trying to persuade me to take conventional neo-liberal economics seriously. Good luck.
Sharon
Good luck to you in your endeavors.
I'm sure you will be enormously successful by dismissing those whose points of view are at variance with yours. For true believers, there is no room for debate.
Neo-liberal true believers are among the most committed in the world - wow, something worked exactly the same amount of time as we've had fossil fuels - ooh, major coincidence - that means it will always work!
You did teach me something useful, though. I hadn't realized that markets worked even more incompetently than I suspected - that everyone knows that every single act of pollution is a market failure and they are just struggling with how to deal with them. If I'd known, I would have offered to help out the poor markets and their neo-liberal nurturers who are torturing themselves with this terrible burden. Here they are, trying desperately to best address the externalities of Britney Spears CDs, little coats for people's dogs and GI Joe, working their little economies right off on that hard problem.
I understand when you are very busy and working very hard to ensure that CEOs get the best compensation packages available, it can be very difficult to notice that you could deal with the externalities by not burning the fucking oil to begin with. If only I'd known, I would certainly have volunteered to help out at TAMDMAE, one of my favorite charities, The Association for Mentally Disabled Markets and Economists. Thank you for reminding me to get on that volunteer list again.
Sharon
Sharon
Sharon,
My brain is fried from taking midterms all week and performing in a (major) concert last night. No hard feelings, okay?
-Rebecca
500 bushel per acre corn yields are awesome. If all you want to eat is corn. Cheap fossil fuels have served as an agricultural substitute for careful resource management over scales of time that the markets ignore. And I know economists have children and grandchildren so I don't know why many of them seem ignorant of the dangers of such thinking. 50% of the topsoil of the Midwest, of the world's bread basket, has disappeared over the last century. Industrial agriculture will eat the rest in less time if given the opportunity. Then how will the markets feed us?
"Differences in relative factor prices across countries do not create inefficiencies, they lead to different production techniques." Which totally ignores factors like climate which are much more likely to directly affect food production than price. You can’t buy or sell it if you can’t grow it. Check back when you’ve perfected a production technique for growing coffee in Canada. The reality is that small farmers in the south who grow much of their own food are pushed off the land in favor of huge, exotic exports like coffee plantations that can’t support their caloric needs. Even if the laborers of such plantations were making enough to buy food from developed countries that subsidize food production, what a dumbass system. America has an obesity epidemic and 24,000 people die from starvation or starvation related illnesses each day in developing countries. They don’t need your capital “resources”. They need their land back and largely less interference from your markets. Jesus was right. Giving a man a fish only feeds him for a day, teaching him to fish feeds him for a lifetime. But largely I suspect people in developing countries already know how to fish. Continued support of over consumptive lifestyles in developed countries requires us to convince ourselves otherwise.
My main problem with markets is that are largely reactionary. Human beings have the capacity to negatively affect ecosystems with disastrous consequences that will last for centuries; long after the economists who support such "progress" are dead. We don't have time for the markest to react to such forces put in play. I have a problem with economists who so strongly support market based economies in that they seem unable to conceive of any alternative other than soviet style central planning. That doesn't work either. Among other issues, it fails to focus on the present tense. I can't imagine were incapable of meeting our needs through commerce based largely on local market principles *and* manage the resources necessary to continue human life on this planet indefinitely. HUmans are ingenious right?
One hindrance seems to be the religious pedestal on which we’ve placed the markets.
“…illustrative of how jittery the markets are” “Friday evening is going to be the main focus for the markets.” “ …the market will be on alert.” “ …to meet the changing needs of the market.” “…won’t change the market”
We talk about them like the Greeks talked about their gods. To the extent that they do serve us, great. But to the extend that they do not serve us, or that we in fact have become so blind to their flaws that we are willing to forsake human dignity and charity and ethical behavior in their service, we should abandon them for another way of thinking and acting that works better. SOmething other than a soviet system
I can envision two types of responses to this comment. One from those that can see clearly the failures of the markets. And another from those that will argue on their deathbeds that market worship is not only right and just, but necessary. No changing some folks, although I do hope the scales will one day fall from their eyes. I think those folks could be helpful in retooling our world.
Now people who hold a different point of view from yours are mentally disabled.
You've established your standard operating procedure fairly clearly. From my experience, if you have to resort to profanity and insults as rebuttals, you've already lost the argument.
I'll move along now, before you threaten to "kick my butt" or some other playground taunt.
Have fun in your echo chamber.
LOL, Son of the Border, I didn't call you names. If you'll read what I actually said, I called the market names, and I called some economists names - are you an economist? I have no idea, and shockingly, you are not the first person that leaps to mind when I think of economists. As far as I know you are just some random guy on the net. I think you flatter yourself by assuming I'm being personal. Sorry if you are offended by using profanity in a sentence - this a grownup blog and sometimes we choose words for effect. I understand if you'd rather be somewhere G rated - that's fine. But you'll do better if you actually read closely enough to be clear on what is being said.
I'm not interested in kicking anyone's butt, but I do find it mystifying that anyone would defend that allowed us to warm the planet this much - and is still arguing against doing anything about it. Crop yields are already falling, the polar bears are probably toast, and we're sitting here puzzling over what we've got to do? How long will we do that - until NYC is underwater? 1% of the world GDP (if that's the cost, and I suspect Sir Nicholas is estimating low - his figures are based on earlier assessments) is one big pile of cash - is it really that hard to figure out it would have been smarter not to burn the carbon to begin with?
Sharon
I did read your words carefully. I have no problem if you are not interested in economic arguments, that's fine. I offered my perspective, you clearly indicated that you summarily rejected it, so I can certainly agree to disagree. Where you ever got the idea that I was advocating "not doing anything" about global warming escapes me; certainly not in anything I wrote.
I apologize if I misunderstood you about the mentally disabled comment. I am an economist and have been one for more than 32 years. I've also gotten through 64 years of living on God's green earth without the use of profanity, but I've heard a goodly amount of it.
I'm also something of a hobby farmer, and I have 60 acres in Columbia Co., NY where I milk 4 Holsteins and raise Black Simmis and Duroc hogs. My four sisters and I were mainly raised by my paternal grandparents on their dairy farm about 3 miles from Cream, WI. I bought that farm in 1995 and my nephew is milking there now.
In addition to growing up on Grand-Dad's farm, I worked on cattle ranches in Montana and Hawaii. I spent three combat tours in the Viet Nam from 1965-1968 and carry a few reminders of that time on my body. I got a craw full of "grown up" stuff there, so I reckon I can handle whatever you want to dish out.
Just my opinion, but you'll get a whole lot farther in life if you keep a civil tongue. Have a nice day, ma'am.
Now I know he's making something up. No-one goes through 3+ years of military service without swearing a lot, and certainly not with never swearing at all. So either the military service or the not-swearing is made up - I reckon it's the "not swearing."
Capital is not a resource, capital is just money. Confusing money, a store of value and a medium of exchange, with something of actual intrinsic value, is a very common mistake of economists and talking heads everywhere.
As I understand the point of Sharon's blog, it's to focus on things which have lasting and consistent value - good food, good housing, good friends and family, and a reasonable degree of security in those things.
"Capital" does not offer us those things, because the market is random and capricious. This means that money fails to act as a store of value; prices leap around too much.
That's why house and commodities prices across the developed West have jumped up so much in recent years, because traditional investment is too unreliable, companies behaving in a short-term and irresponsible manner, so people go to things they feel sure will hold value - housing and food and gold and so on. High house prices are a sign of a weak and unstable economy, a sign of significant trouble to come.
Economists, like other specialists, often have the failing that they see only their own specialty. For example, I once had an economist tell me that the Irish Potato Famine had nothing to do with the potato blight. And of course with scientists we get them suggesting beta-carotene boosted rice rather than just planting a patch of carrots, etc. Specialisation can be very powerful, but it can be very blinding, too.
This is the first entry of your blog I have read, BRAVO!
I have never heard of the research you have found about the superior output of small traditional holdings over industrial agriculture, and it gives me a lot of heart. I presume you have heard of permaculture, which I interpret as a modern amalgamation of ancient knowledge and good science. It does not surprise me, as a practising permaculturalist, that old methods are more sustainable than argibusiness methods. Yet they still do not sustain families like Paula's, one of your respondents.
Paula wishes people around her will start seeing the problem with market driven economics. I'm guessing until peak oil takes over the markets, market reform will not become mainstream. I am also guessing, with no disrespect to Paula, that her family is tied to the market like most western families, though debt; either their own or their local government's via increasing rates. No matter how much we can provide for ourselves from our own land, no matter how much we can reduce our need of fossil fuels individually, until our governing bodies do the same we are all market slaves. While we still need cash to pay our rates and taxes, we will still be beholden to the banks, we will still be in debt.
However, many communities, including "modern" western communities, around the world are embracing old forms of currency as well as old forms of production. Though many still can't pay their taxes with them, complementary currencies relieve a huge amount of debt. In New Zealand a few of us are in the process of attempting to bring about legislative change to allow local governments to issue local currencies independant of the banks, which will allow us to pay our local taxes at least from sustainably created revenue. I encourage individuals and communities with land, traditional knowledge and human energy to investigate complementary currencies as a way to protect yourselves from debt and the fossil fuel-based market which is failing us all so badly.
Sharon,
I think you'll enjoy this story. It proves that people can change! I've all ready told Emme, since she was the inspiration behind it.
The mother of one of my older friends is 86. She had NEVER done anything green in her life -not recycling, nada. She didn't see the point. Then she read the article about Emme and her family a few months ago. She started doing some thinking and some more reading, and then she started changing. Now she recycles everything, she's stopped drinking bottled water, stopped using disposables, she's "letting it mellow" and all kinds of things -including being something of a green evangelist. Her daughter, who has been trying to convince her just to recycle for 20 years, is a bit bemused (but happy) about all this.
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