Sunday, July 08, 2007

Al Gore Calls on Everyone To Riot for Austerity - and Why You Should Too.

Well, if you watched Live Earth (I didn't), you saw that a holographic Al Gore went where the Riot for Austerity had boldly gone before, calling for a 90% reduction in emissions across all areas, including personal household consumption :

Not a big Al fan here, but I'm stil pleased that he's catching up to our dust ;-). This, my husband points out, is the really, really inconvenient truth - we have to make radical changes, and every minute we put it off makes it harder. If we'd started this 30 years ago, it would have been a cakewalk. Now it is more of a project - but I'm having fun.

Meanwhile, it turns out that the arctic ice is disappearing vastly faster than anyone has ever estimated before. Like almost all the information flowing in over the last few months, it simply demonstrates how very conservative the IPCC report is.

Among the thing the IPCC report was wrong about was the rate of emissions rise (3 times greater than prior evidence had suggested), the race of ice melt in the Antarctic (2.5 times faster), the point at which soils will begin to release their carbon (now), when we'll see methane hydrates start being released from seas (probably now), and a whole host of other things.

Some of these are timing issues (the science is changing rapidly - I wrote a chapter on climate change for one of my books two months ago, and large chunks of it are now out of date), and some are based on the fact that this report was written by a big committee and edited by governments to say what they wanted to see. And the IPCC report was *still* scary. Now we know that the truth is significantly worse - and that really hard measures are necessary. As James Hrynyshyn points out, the ice melt in the arctic represents one of the famed tipping points - and not in 2100, when my grandkids are middle aged, but when I'm middle aged. We don't know what the impact of an early albedo shift will be - but is it a really good idea to find out? Odds are good we will - at this point, even if we stopped emitting carbon today, we'd probably still lose the arctic ice. The simple reality of the precautionary principle demands that we don't bet the lives of half of humanity on "well, it might not be that big a deal."

Of all the things the IPCC was wrong about, the big one is probably the most important. The big one is peak oil. The IPCC report, and most people in the world, believe we can fuel a new economy based on environmentally friendly, renewable energies as we shift over. The problem is, of course, that right now, and for the forseeable future, all those technologies, the economy as a whole and the infrastructure it requires depends on large quantities of cheap and readily available fossil fuels.

And it is peak oil that is likely to cause us our deepest problems - because peak oil is at its heart an economic problem. Without the cheap energy that fuels every aspect of our economy - from the food on our table to the amount of spare capital firms have to invest in renewable research, to local and national tax bases, to military policy - we're not going to be able to completely overhaul our system, unless we do it quickly - and probably not even then.

And most of us are not going to be able to make large scale *personal* changes unless we do them soon. Everyone in the world is now seeing their grocery budgets rise. For the 2 billion people worldwide who spend more than half of their annual income on food, the 30% rise in food prices is a true disaster. Much of this stems from ethanol production - but also from rises in the price of artificial fertilizer, fuel for your tractor, etc.. Millions of Americans and Australians are starting to experience "transportation poverty" - that is, getting to work eats up a huge portion of their budget. Such wild radicals as Alan Greenspan and the Chair of the National Board of Realtors have announced we are most likely headed towards a deep recession.

If even Al Gore (who could only bring himself to mention Compact Flourescents and turning down the thermostat in his movie) is calling for such a change, what's the incentive to be out in front with us over at the Riot? Well first of all, this is a great deal of fun. Second of all, we're a long way from persuading any national government to even propose the necessary changes. And third, since most estimates of time scale came in before we knew how fast ice was melting, desertification was proceeding and carbon emissions were rising. Now maybe the IPCC is right, but does anyone want to bet their lives, and the lives of their kids and grandkids on it?

Even if you can't bring yourself to make radical changes in your emissions as an investment in the future, I'd also argue that there are compelling selfish reasons for everyone who reads this to beginning making radical lifestyle changes - not just emissions cuts, but vast reductions in your dependence on fossil resources, and very, very soon. The biggest one is now is probably the best opportunity you'll have. And now is our chance to "Use What We Have"

There's a whole tv show out there, I'm told (don't have cable) called "Use what you have decorating" - the idea being that most people like their stuff, and that they could make their world beautiful by tastefully rearranging what they've already got. And we're about to come into contact with "use what you have peak oil/climate change adaptation" - the reality that we probably aren't going to rip apart and rebuild our whole world in a more environmentally friendly way. We probably aren't all going to get cool monorails and tax breaks for greening our homes. Technology isn't going to magically save us. Realistically, most of us are going to go into the hardest of hard times making do with what we've got, and what adaptations we can get in under the wire.

Now "Use What You Have" can be an ugly strategy or a lovely one. Obviously, if someone managed to make a tv show out of it, it can make pretty and elegant (may I take leave to digress and note that I'm pretty sure that pressboard furniture and hummel figurines can't be made beautiful - period ;-)?). And use what you have strategies for peak oil and climate change can be graceful and lovely. Quilts and blankets hung on underinsulated walls can keep you warm, and can look nice too. Carefully stapling bubblewrap into wood frames can make cheap, light translating insulation that last for many years. Homemade wool socks are toasty and fun to make. With practice and time and a few resources, you can develop the skill and grace to keep yourself warm and fed and still have a little comfort and even beauty.

Or, use what you have can be horrible. It can lead to lives spent scavenging through garbage dumps (not referring here to trash picking, but landfill scavenging, which millions of poor people in the third world do for a living - and pay a heavy price for in contamination and disease), burning your wood furniture to keep alive and selling off your possessions one by one to keep the wolf from the door. Both involve using what you already have. And to some degree, the difference between grace and garbage scavenging is sheer luck - knowing how to make socks won't save you from the worst if you are unfortunate. But some of it also derives from practice - from having the relevant skill set you can access, and also enough familiarity with the lifestyle not to panic when it is thrust fully upon you. And the familiarity is gained only by living it. The ability to make good choices when things get nasty - to know what is necessary and what isn't, comes only with practice. And that's why you should think hard about living now the way you may have to.

Right now, as a society, there's a good chance we're as rich as we'll ever be. The price of most tools necessary to live sustainably is probably as low as it will ever be - does anyone remember Y2K? It was something I pretty much ignored, but I've read about the shortages of woodstoves, bulk foods, and grain grinders. Back orders ran at several years at the peak of awareness. And let's be honest - the evidence for a Y2K crisis was nowhere near as compelling as the evidence for a peak oil/climate change 1-2 punch. What happens when 300 million Americans actually grasp what the future looks like? I'd bet on high prices for many adaptive technologies, at a minimum. Do you live in dangerous coastal area? How long before homeowners insurance companies refuse to insure anyone? How long before the value of your home drops, before awareness rises enough to make living in a low lying coastal area a major problem?

Even if fossil alternatives start making a big dent in things, those too will rise in price, because they are dependent on fossil energies at a hundred steps in the process of making each solar panel and windmill. The price of your electric bill, wherever it comes from is going up, along with the price of gas, food, and everything you purchase. How long before this starts to hurt your ability to do things like reinsulate, move to a different house, get that deeper well, get the heck out of the southwest... (Today we learned that the drought in the southwest may well last another *90* years. How many of the 60 million people in affected areas do you think will want to leave? How much will your house in Tucson sell for in a decade?

But more importantly, peak oil means that most of us are kidding ourselves if we're fantasizing that we can have a pleasant, gentle transition that means mostly just buying cool eco-friendly products, and driving our cool electric-car pod. Most of us are going to get a lot poorer, and probably fairly quickly - certainly over the next decade. The best case scenarios mean that fixing Global Warming will probably cost more than 2% of the GDP and require what James Hansen calls "draconian" measures. That's going to hurt us all. But the worst case scenarios for global warming alone involve 20% of the global GDP - a level of economic damage we've never seen before. And peak oil makes that harder, faster.

For the average person, who will probably lose a job, see the costs for basic things like food, energy and clothing rise dramatically, the future is going to be doing the best you can with what you've got. And that's where switching over to the 90% Reduction plan now, or something very like it right now will help you make the transition gently. Because the odds are good we aren't that far from some of us making it the hard way. Peak oil and climate change will hit each of us at different times - the day it strikes us is the day we lose *our* job, or the day it no longer makes sense to go to work at all, because the gas cost is so high. The day we have to choose between treating an infection and buying shoes for the kids. The day the thermostat inches off. The day they foreclose, or you realize you have to sell, even at a loss. The day the only choice is to use what you have then, and hope you can keep most of it.

It can be hard for those who haven't got any experience with real poverty to imagine that this could happen to them. Sometimes I think the reason so many people get fixated on Mad Max type-scenarios is because they are in some ways, less frightening (and what does that say about us) than the simple realities of grinding poverty - the ordinary human misery that people in the rich world have been granted a pass on for so long.

Living closer to Chinese peasants than American consumers gets you in practice for your reality. It allows you to figure out what you will need to adapt and prepare while you still have resources. Better buy that woodstove now, because in 2 years, if it is available at all, you may not have the money. Better learn to do the laundry without power, grow a garden, bike 10 miles to work now - because if you do them only when you have to, you'll be overwhelmed. Introducing one change at a time, using what we've already got, with support and aid is a lot less painful than the sudden, horrible realization that the old way of life is gone and it isn't coming back. And there's an art to it, and a craftsmanly quality that is exciting, engaging and fun - you are making beauty, if you are doing it right. You are creating a thing of clean lines and small inputs and artful reuse. There's grace there, even when we least intend it. Perhaps Grace with a capital too, if that's the sort of thing you believe in. Or at least a little mercy.

If you are interested in joining the Riot, the information is here:

Sharon in upstate NY


Anonymous said...

Looks like those of us who don't have money to buy land and a home now or in the next couple of years are pretty s*it out of luck then? Geez, two years probably isn't even enough for me to master the art of sock knitting, my next project.

What's a poor but eager grad student to do? Give up the PhD pipe dream and move back with the folks? But oh yeah, the live 5 miles from the ocean...

Worried and feeling unempowered

Kiashu said...

I'm always puzzled by this assertion that to stop contributing to global warming will cost us 2% of GDP, or four billion dollars, or whatever.

In reducing electricity, natural gas, oil and consumer goods consumption we are stopping contributions to global warming and we're saving money. It doesn't cost us more to walk instead of drive, or eat more fresh fruit and vegetables and less processed food, or to turn the heater off and put on a jumper instead, or when the coal station wears out to build a wind station instead of another coal one.

I get the impression that the assumption of those studies telling us how it'll cost to solve the problem are assuming - "if we don't actually change our lifestyles at all." If we all still drive cars, just fuelled by something else, or if we all still use a heap of disposable plastic each year, just made with plant starch instead of crude oil, or if we all still want bananas in the winter, but brought by sailboat instead of by refirgerator ship.

So it costs us extra money if we don't change anything at all. Well hell, I could have told them that.

But if we actually change something, it saves us money.

feonixrift said...

I wonder, sometimes, if those GPD estimates aren't saying "we think/claim we can do this with people only consuming x% less stuff".

Mandarina said...

Sharon, anonymous grad student has touched on something that disturbs me about your post. When I said you were inspiring (the verb) the other day, it is a double-edged sword that comes (as you know) with responsibility. This post felt panicky. And while there's every rational reason that we should be scared into action, when I read your post, I was moved to consider buying up big on agricultural machinery and barrels of oil (none of which I would have the faintest idea what to do with). Thermal underwear in every size between three year old and adult so I can grow my kids to adulthood. Stockpiling, not sharing. Not wanting to spread the message - to avoid creating new competitors. You usually address this very well when you discuss the need for community building to accompany oil descent. But this post made me feel like there wasn't time for that.

In Jared Diamond's excellent book _Collapse_ he describes the last surviving Greenland farm as a lifeboat, and every time another farm failed and the family came knocking on the door of that lifeboat, that lifeboat got a little more likely to sink (and it did).

I'm not saying you shouldn't tell the truth, but I'd caution that your meta-message (tone) should also work towards your goal. Panic, despair, "unempoweredness," escapism into retail therapy. Even during scarcity, a scarcity mentality (competing not collaborating with others) is the last thing we need.

Mandarina said...

Kiashu, you are absolutely right. GDP is a total crock and pretty useless at measuring anything. Staying home to raise your baby reduces GDP. Going out and earning money and paying someone else to raise your baby (who has to pay someone else to raise theirs...etc) adds to it! Car accidents and hailstorms ADD to GDP (more medical bills, more repairs and rebuilding). An unhealthy population that consumes lots of medical products and services ADDs to GDP. It's really only a measure of money (not value) circulating - which in turn is a measure of nothing very important.

What they do mean when they say it will reduce GDP is that money will circulate less. More people will have less of it to spend. more people will mend, grow, make do at home without paying for stuff. Companies will need fewer inputs to make fewer outputs, and everyone will pay fewer taxes because they'll earn less money (which will strain social services of all kinds).

Anonymous said...

Hmmm...unempowered is decidedly not a word. I guess I'm feeling disempowered then.

I agree completely with what Mandarina articulated better than I could.

-the grad student

jewishfarmer said...

Good comments today. Mandarina, I think has it right - I think the 2% reduction is simply the reduction in overall productivity and economic return - at least in some scenarios. I actually think that really dealing with climate change is going to be far more costly in jobs and circulating money - I think Sir Nicholas Stern's estimate is probably very low, based on the fantasy that we can create an economy out of fixing our mess. To some degree that may be true - but not on the scale we'd like. Not doing all this stuff means lowered productivity and less money in circulation. In the end, that might even be a good thing, but it will certainly suck for many of us.

Mandarina, I take your criticism seriously - so much that my next post will be responding to you and to Anonymous. I understand that urge to stockpile, and I'm not sure it should be wholly dismissed - if you can get 'em used, I'd stock up on the shoes and long underwear. What can it hurt?

I'm not panicking, but I also think the "this is a problem for my grandkids/I'll do it when the government makes me/I can go on the way I have been" notion is probably wrong. I don't believe in apocalypses, I just believe in a long, frustrating narrative of people losing jobs and getting poorer. I've never believed or said anything else - and while I think we can resolve some of our difficulties with activism, I also believe strongly in hedging bets, and I'd like to see everyone reading this hedge theirs.

Anonymous, I'm sorry that this sounds unempowering and frustrating. I don't think you are out of luck - learning to knit socks is really not that hard - you'll have time for plenty more. But I'll be blunt - I suspect we're headed towards difficult times fairly soon.

That's just a guess - I'm no prophet. But I'd tend to think that everyone who has longer term plans should also have a solid backup scenario for what they do if a crisis comes sooner, rather than later. That just seems practical - and yes, it sucks not to be able to have things work out for you. I'm damned lucky, and I know that. But whenever things happen, they are bound to happen before some people are happy and ready. Heck, I'd like another couple of decades - but I truly and honestly don't think I'm going to get them.

If I look like a nutcase, fair enough. You all can laugh in ten years about what would have happened if you'd followed my stupid advice. I'd rather that than that I came off as saying "with enough political will we can all just fix this and no worries about the other outcomes" - and thus, people focused all their energies outward, without making personal preparations.

It sucks, of course. I'll write more about this in my next post, but there's no good response except - it sucks.


Maeve said...

I really enjoyed this post.

I have children, the youngest is nearly 3. Things like recessions and increased cost of living impact us in a lot of ways, and the comment about the long underwear gave me a chuckle. Just this year I decided to use a tip I'd read about in the Tightwad Gazette, and set up a system of storage bins for clothing sorted by size. Things we've outgrown, hand-me-downs from friends, and yard sale treasure all go in the bins. Anything not-so-nice goes in a rag bin. I'm hoping that by the end of this summer, I'll have at least two or three sets of clothing in each size stored away. Peace of mind. And even if we're all wrong and the world magically rights itself, they'll make perfectly good play or work clothes if the kids think the stuff is ugly 5 years from now.

That's the key, is to prepare -and live- for practicalities, and not paranoid hysteria. There was a difference in 1999 between people who bought some bottled water and dry beans and stocked up on a few medicines and such, and people who fled to rural areas with a barn full of survival food packed in sealed containers.

While I saw this post as a bit more alarmist than usual, I also didn't feel like I was being advocated to "get me some guns and ammo" ;) But rather that the time for procrastination on doing something is at an end, and instead of sitting here reading blogs and thinking about all the things I'll get around to doing "next year" or "later", I need to actually start doing some of them.

Michelle in Ga said...

I didn't see anything alarmist in the post. KNowledge is power.

Save and Conserve said...

i watched live earth and it was interesting how the focus was on the "little things". in terms of behavioral change, they were talking about replacing light bulbs and recycling more.

nobody stated the obvious: drive fewer miles, live closer to where you work, etc.

the music was entertaining, but the message was seriously lacking. what we need is some radical change & we're nowhere near that point in the usa

Anonymous said...

It odd, I'm pushing people to be MORE alarmist, at the same time, that others are pushing to be less alarmist. You look at some recent society collapses and you can see a huge range. Congo went to a terrible place, North Korea was a little better, Russia better still, and Cuba adapted pretty well. Bulgaria had a bad couple of years, and then a slow decline into austerity program after austerity program. And if we keep our heads and work together well, it doesn't have to be as bad as any of those here in America, even without top-down government intervention.

Anonymous. Look to your assets. Eager. That's great, that's almost like "adaptable." Build skills now as much as you can while trying to keep going, and keep eyes open for opportunities. Suppose the enrollment at your school drops because fewer people can afford college, and it has to start laying off folk (a process already well underway where I am). Will you be done by then? If not, then start thinking now about what you can do if that day comes. If your folk's place becomes untenable as the oceans rises you may have to move to the interior. Eager adaptable people in the US, are not going to be SOL, especially if they are young and healthy and willing to integrate themselves into a functioning community. Even older, less healthy people don't have to be SOL if we can keep our communities functioning. As old ways stop working, people are going to have to built new ways of doing things quickly and on few resources. We're gonna have to move to 30% of US as farmers very rapidly. Probably people won't become professional farmers that quickly, and a lot of people who lose other jobs will be able to become hired farm hands. Small farmers like Sharon aren't hiring many folk now, but that will probably change. If that's not to your tastes or skills, think about other jobs that were popular in America's poorer past, or are popular today in poorer parts of the world. Trains will come back big, as will bikes and mopeds. Many people sent laundry to launderesses in the past because it was labor intense, and subject to scale economies. If you started a laundry business today it would fail quickly, but in 10 years? If America loses half of its median income, well what is life like in a country today that has about 1/2 of America's median income? Say the Czech Republic, or Taiwan? Suppose it gets even worse, to high third-world standards. Even there it can go better or worse depending on how well we prepare, adapt, and keep community spirit and political function working during the troubles. Turkey and Thailand are doing a lot better than say Egypt or Colombia, despite comparable per capita GDPs (and I agree GDPs are a bad estimator, but I haven't got easy access to a better one).

Mandarina - I agree that despair isn't usually helpful on tone, but fear does get people moving. You need to mix fear with urging people to form or strengthen communities I agree. Also notice that stockpiling during scarcity leads to shortages, but stockpiling right before scarcity sends a message to the economy to start producing more of the desired items and can actually help prevent shortages. If lots of people buy woodburning stoves or solar ovens this year, there will be a lot more woodburners and stoves produced next year. If the same thing is done in 2011 it may just mean lots of shortages in 2012 instead of more production. If people feel completely powerless they can't work to adapt, but if people feel like they have more power than they actually do, they also can't adapt. The trick is to try to help people be scared enough to work on adapting, but not so panicy that they feel paralyzed. Likewise, sometimes a strategy that will be a good idea eventually, isn't a good idea yet. The market for bike mechanics is going to be much more impressive in 10 years than it is now, but a bike shop may well fail and go bankrupt between now and then.
-Brian M.

Anonymous said...

I think there's enough excess clothing, dishes, and other "stuff" laying in American basements, garages, etc. that future generations could survive for a good 500-600 years just scavenging through the current excess. It's the food that will be the problem. The food and the lawlessness.

Anonymous said...

I think there's enough excess clothing, dishes, and other "stuff" laying in American basements, garages, etc. that future generations could survive for a good 500-600 years just scavenging through the current excess. It's the food that will be the problem. The food and the lawlessness.

Raphaël said...

Hi Sharon,

As I have some time these days, I translate some of your posts in French (primarily, for the benefit of my wife).

I have already translated 'Getting over Picky' and this one 'Al Gore...'. I will also translate 'Pick up your hat'.

If you do not disagree, I plan to post these translations on a French Peak Oil forum :



Raphaël said...

Hi Sharon,

The translation of your post is now here :



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