Wednesday, June 20, 2007

We Simply May Not Have Time to Wait for the Technology Fairy

The simple facts are these - the IPCC report, which is scary enough, is vastly more conservative than it should be. It turns out that by every measure, the earth is warming faster than expected, and feedback loops are starting to build. In a paper released yesterday, major climate scientists evaluated 400,000 years of climate data and suggested that climate change could be far more deadly and far more rapid than we think.

Here's the article, sent to me by several people:http://environment.independent.co.uk/climate_change/article2675747.ece

It turns out that we have much less time to fix this than the IPCC or anyone else believes - a decade at most. And that our future is that much bleaker. And this article speaks only of one of the

The most disturbing bit of the article is the last line, particularly when read in parallel with the last comment of Ban Ki-Moon in the article I posted about yesterday.

Here's what climate scientists say it will take to save the world, *along with* "draconian" emissions limits: "We conclude that a feasible strategy for planetary rescue almost surely requires a means of extracting [greenhouse gases] from the air."

Now here's what Mr. Ban says about saving Africa from climate change induced drought: "Any real solution to Darfur's troubles involves sustained economic development," perhaps using new technologies, genetically modified grains or irrigation, while bettering health, education and sanitation" (if you missed this article, the link is here:
http://www.france24.com/france24Public/en/administration/afp-news.html?id=070616212708.ymevxrx6&cat=null)

That is, at the end of each article where a little hope is supposed to be offered, we are told that the only hope is a technological breakthrough - that is, that the authors can't imagine anything that would fix this except a magic visit from the technology fairy. I don't think I'm pushing the evidence to admit that in both cases, the speakers don't fully know what to do, and they are, if not scared, at a loss to offer a real and immediate solution.

I've talked about the problems of waiting for technologies to emerge before. The whole process of developing them is quite carbon intensive, and with a decade to keep the planet from roasting, and vastly less to keep more violence from breaking out in Africa, we need a faster plan than "hope for new technologies."

Moreover, just as our plans for renewable energies at this stage are working on the (wrong) assumption that we can still keep our private cars and still keep our houses at 70 degrees, and still be affluent, so too is at least Mr. Ban working on the assumption that we're inevitably stuck with the same economic and political models. The simple hopelessness of his call is based, in part, on the inability to imagine real change. And it is hopeless within those parameters. It is hopeless if we have to wait for technology fairies. It is hopeless if we have to keep growth capitalism up and running forever.

The only hope we have is the notion that the assumptions we make are merely assumptions - that we don't actually have to live as we do right now. That we don't have to extract food from the third world, while burning our own dinners in our cars. That we don't have keep growing - in fact, we can't. That we can't reduce our usage by not 50%, but 90 or 95%.

As far as I can tell, there is no better plan than this. Build soil. Plant trees. Grow food. Make Do. Do Without. Give what you can to others. Fix your mistakes. Cut your emissions to the bone, and then cut them some more. And every time it hurts (and it will sometimes), close your eyes and imagine your nieces and nephews or your children or grandchildren or your friend's beloved children grown to womanhood and manhood in a world where there is food and peace and water. And then imagine them without. And ask yourself "What else don't I need so I can bring about a decent future."

Otherwise, when we say we can't do it, we're choosing the next generation's future. The places we love underwater. Wild creatures that live only in zoos. The deaths of more than a billion people from drought and famine - some of them people we love personally, and all of them people we should be capable of caring about.

On the plus side, the Riot for Austerity is growing *FAST.* We're working on transitioning to the creation of local groups in people's communities - because that's how we need this to spread, house to house, neighbor to neighbor. I know, it is hard that way - some of your neighbors won't care. But give it time - the great thing about human beings is that very quickly, under the right cultural pressure, they forget they ever objected. Think about it - how many people living in the US will admit to having been a racist? Three? And yet there were tens of thousands of people all over the country who once were unashamed to admit to it - maybe millions. If you ask in Germany whose parents were involved, you'd get the impression that the Nazi party was 8 guys in a beer hall. The reality is that we re-write our history pretty fast. The neighbor who paves his lawn and loves his Hummer today is tomorrow's "I was an environmentalist back before it was cool." Our job is to nod and grin.

So put up a flyer in your library or at your post office, put an ad up online. Start a local group today! Link it to something else - "Carbon conscious banjo players" or "Fantasy Baseball Rioters for Austerity." Make it fun. Throw a party. Get in the pool. Eat some good, local food. And remember, live your life with joy, but as though other people's lives depended on it - they do.

BTW, I'm going to be on KMO's C-Realm Podcast going up today http://c-realmpodcast.podomatic.com/ - I'm flattered, because KMO has a lot cooler people than me on. In fact, he invited me on to discussion population issues raised by his prior guest, Dr. Albert Bartlett, but I also got to talk a little about sustainable agriculture, democracy and why my turkeys won't stop pooping on my porch and eating my geraniums. I have infinitely slow dial-up, so those of you with decent connections will probably hear it long before I do - let me know if I said "umm..." every six seconds or not ;-)

Sharon

74 comments:

gn0s1s said...

What do you do, or suggest, for the bouts, or fits, of feelings of helplessness that come after realizing the future we have placed ahead of us?

Anonymous said...

"Bouts, or fits, of feelings of helplessness"? You mean yours go away periodically? How do you manage to get that to happen?
-Brian M.

e4 said...

Have you read up on "terra preta"? I know, I know - The chief cause of problems is solutions... But I trust Mom Nature's methods more than others.

I can't get into giant carbon scrubbing contraptions or undersea vaults or space mirrors or ethanol or sharks with carbon-zapping lasers.

This concept gave me the first glimmer of hope I've had in a while. I'm still cynical enough to think that even if it does work as it seems, somebody'll find a way to bastardize it into something stupid and/or dangerous. We'll see.

Anonymous said...

No kidding, Brian. My husband and I were having one of these bleak conversations lately, and decided that it almost feels better to assume that the personal privations are, at best, more a way of preparing us personally to (hopefully) *survive* the gloomy future, than a way to actually *prevent* a gloomy future. Otherwise, it can be too easy to look at all the dire forecasts and say, "what's the point? No matter how much we give up, we're all doomed anyway, so why put ourselves through this?"

On a slightly different note, Sharon, your mention of population issues in this post has me curious to see some of your thoughts on the subject. Maybe I missed a previous post on it in the archives?

-hisenthlay

Phil said...

Hansen's paper (on which the Indy front page is based) can be found here:

http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_2.pdf

Phil

Heather said...

Hey, glad to see someone mention terra preta! I was doing some reading on that as well. I was wondering last week, if we bought bags of 100% natural charcoal and dug it into the ground, if that would help? Assuming lots of people did that.... it not only sequesters carbon, but also helps the soil to retain nutrients better.

In one article they were talking about possibly making it and capturing what gases there are from the process to use for an alternative/additional fuel, with the terra preta going to farmers to enrich the soil. Of course I don't know how they were proposing to make terra preta on a large scale basis....

but digging in some natural charcoal ourselves seems like a way to help reduce carbon in the air and improve our veggies' and fruits' chances of doing well at the same time.

As for the 'feelings of helplessness', yeah, I get those too. It was especially true this past winter, when I started to really dig deep online. But if I give up, then I definitely won't be part of the solution. Sometimes I take a few days off from reading whatever the latest info is on glaciers melting, climate change, etc., and just do my own thing (also, this saves electricity!).

It's true, we may not be able to do enough in the next decade to offset complete ecological disaster. But we won't know unless we try. And if we can get enough people trying starting right now, by next year we may be making a significant impact in the news, online, wherever we can make a difference.

In two years, maybe even the government-types will notice. But unless there's a general feeling/movement at the grassroots level of people already living more simply, whatever the gov't does won't be enough. So in a way, what we're doing right now is the best thing we can do -- showing them and everyone else that it can be done.

Also, I don't necessarily buy that nobody will do what we're doing if it's uncomfortable. After all, _we_ are doing it. It's one of the reasons I have a LiveJournal account... I'm not a professional writer or anything, but I do have friends who are reading the stuff I post about energy and pollution and the various things Lyle and I are doing to try to live more lightly. Some of the less scarey stuff, some of them are trying out. A few of them have great ideas and share what they're doing with the rest of us. As for the heavier-duty stuff that we're doing, I think they're watching to see if we can hack it in the long run. So, I have hopes that more of them will try things after we make it through this year.

The other thing that keeps me more positive than negative, is that I have asthma and crying totally congests my sinuses and causes breathing problems :D So, if I have a choice, I choose the positive!

Gwyn said...

Hey - that was just the inspiration I needed as I am struggling a bit with how complicated it is to do all this and keep up with insomnica kids! Local groups are a great idea also - make sure you put the word out if you need help!

Kiashu said...

Sharon, you have chopped off some text in your third paragraph, you may want to add something in there?

That's a good article you linked to, but is full of "maybes". I agree that we should plan for the worst, but the article doesn't deal with all the issues.

We already know how the people talking about Peak Oil seem to rarely connect with Climate Change people. So for example, it's rarely been addressed - to reach (say) 800ppm CO2, do we actually have enough fossil fuels to burn? It's possible we could run out of fossil fuels before we do really serious damage to the climate. Now, this is not exactly cause for hope - it's like saying that your alcoholic dad will finish the bottle of bourbon before he needs to be hospitalised. But it's something worth studying, and does not seem to have been looked at much.

Another thing not considered is soot. The global warming deniers often talk about the supposed fear of an Ice Age in the 1970s. That's because the 1950s and 1960s actually did see some global cooling. Why? Because of soot. When we burn fossil fuels, they produce soot - aerosols of various kinds - as well as greenhouse gases. The soot blocks out sunlight, and the greenhouse gases trap heat. So 1950-1970, there was a stronger effect from the soot than the greenhouse gases, and the world cooled.

Then we decided that we didn't like choking to death in our own cities, and introduced laws to reduce the soot. Which was great for our lungs, but also left the greenhouse gases free. So then the heating effect dominated.

Now, we have to look at the world today, where is the increase in greenhouse gas emissions coming from? The biggest increases are from India and China, as they've over a billion people and industrialising. But at the same time, they're producing a lot of soot, because their environmental protection laws are shit.

So it may be that the soot from India and China will balance out the greenhouse gases from the whole world and the world will reach some kind of plateau in warming in a decade or two. Or maybe not. We don't know. It's not been studied.

So there are a lot of uncertainties, no-one's included all effects into one grand report yet not even the IPCC. It's certainly rational to prepare for the worst, but it's also rational to expect that the worst probably won't happen.

Don't panic yet. Act, don't panic.

Dave B. said...

Hi Sharon,

I gave the podcast a listen, and you had very few ummms. :) The last few minutes I listened to twice. More on that in a moment.

I felt you made poignant remarks suggesting something's wrong with Bartlett's view that somehow suggests sharing and accommodating others is anti-thetical to freedom, or democracy. Perhaps this points to an essential difference in our western culture that focuses so intently on the individual. Not that a little solipsism isn't fun now and then, but it does seem to be a tendency of our schooling.

This comes back to your point of ascetism or austerity. Inherently, this seems something most would hope to avoid, a feeling of deprivation, of a loss of freedom. But I felt the last few minutes of your podcast effectively made the case the opposite is most likely true, where a carefully practiced ascetism, reducing the scale of your personal world, gains a greater freedom within it, one much closer to the agrarian ideals molding the thinking of our founding fathers. I felt you offered a compelling, positive vision, of what we can make life be. This reduction of scale point you made fascinates me, and I'd ask if you could amplify on this in future writings - it sounded as if you were going farther afield (much) than simplicity or ascetism, making a connection to a libertarian ethic perhaps.

Stopping here due to length, but with another favor to ask. Do you have a favorite reference or two on polyculture?

cheers,
Dave

Anonymous said...

The Political Will Fairy just seems so much like the Technological Fix Fairy to me. The basic outlines of peak oil, global warming, agribusiness problems, and such have been known for decades.

I think of the austerities as preparing for an unpreventable gloomy future rather than trying to prevent it, but I'm STILL not very good at them. We do a little here and there, we improve, but often it seems like just gestures. The Amish discourage converts because they find that few people can hack their lifestyle unless born and raised to it. Converts wind up unable to pull their weight and a drag on the community. Maybe some of you farmers will be able to cope if you can keep your farms until things get bad enough, but most of the rest of us, we will be able to pull our weight.

Of course, keep working on technological fixes, every little bit helps, but the odds of a breakthrough that will help enough are low. Of course, try to organize and galvanize political will, every little bit helps. But the odds of discovering cheap tabletop fusion are higher than the odds of more than a small percentage of Americans adjusting to low energy lifestyles in 10 years without being forced to do so economically. Voluntary poverty will grow and spread. People like me will try and not do very good. Other folk will pretend and greenwash and brag. Some folk will probably even do a good job. But a 90% reduction in 10 years? Not unless its accompanied by an 80% reduction in population, and that's too sad for me to think about clearly.
-Brian M.

M.Squirrel said...

gn0s1s says, "What do you do, or suggest, for the bouts, or fits, of feelings of helplessness that come after realizing the future we have placed ahead of us?"

Mama Squirrel answers:

Research has shown that the following activities can actually help reduce depression far better than any pharma out there:

Go dig in the dirt...plant a garden. Soil is full of micro-organisms that give us the same high we get from chocolate.

Go to a petting zoo, or spend time with your own animals.

Get rid of the sunscreen and get some natural vitamin D from the sun, which also helps reduce a woman's chance of cancer by 50% (just don't bake yourself). It probably affects men's chances of cancer by a similar amount. Lack of sunlight is the cause of the "winter blues", and our indoor-all-year-round lives these days can't be helping.

Get some exercise...walk, bike. Exercise can also give that chocolate-bar high, and the nice waist-line you'll get will cure almost all blues.

Turn off the television and play cards or a board game with your family or friends. As social beings, we need that human contact.

Another natural high...good, slow food made of all natural ingredients. Our kids gobble up our boring, home-made white bread as quickly as they would cookies.

Have dinner by candlelight, or oil-lamp-light (we like our veggie-oil lamp)...it makes dinner, especially one that is home made and all natural, all the more satisfying and cozier.

Get a hobby, like sewing, making candles, recycling trash to treasure, or the previous suggestions of cooking and gardening. Even if you only accomplish a minor amount, hobbies are a big ego-booster.

Consequently, these suggestions are also the ones that are suppose to help save the planet.

Anonymous said...

Need a campaign to bring in free travel on public transport in all major cities

While this measure won't fully solve the problem nor get everyone out of their cars it can help and also encourage the cultural shift that is needed.

If this measure was adopted, there is no doubt that extra trains and buses would be needed.

In Ireland, people over the age of 65 automatically get free travel on the city buses and national railways. It makes a huge difference to them. Lets extend this worldwide but to people of all ages.

Alan said...

Great idea, anonymous. I've been agitating for free public transit for over 35 years. I read a quote from someone years ago to the effect that "Charging fares for public transit is roughly equivalent to charging fares for elevators in high-rise buildings." High-rise buildings are not practical without free elevators and cities are not practical without free public transit.

Alan
Portland, Oregon

jewishfarmer said...

gn0s1 - My short answer is *work*. I'm not being facetious, either - the best answer I've ever found (for myself) to helplessness is to imagine/believe I am powerful, and that my work will make a difference. I like to think that this is more than personal denial, but even if it isn't, it is pleasantly consoling. I suspect the same could be true of others.

My husband's tool of choice is trashy science fiction ;-). I like that too when things get overwhelming.

E4, I agree with you about Terra Preta being promising. My only concerns about the gases produced if we were doing this on a large enough scale to really reduce emissions, and whether all natural charcoals work equally well - the key seems to have been long, long, heating in a smothering environment. But yes, I'm deeply heartened by it.

Kiashu, I guess I'm personally dubious that between the major fossil sources we won't have enough to cross a tipping point, when you count in global dimming and other accellerating factors. The Swedish gentleman who made that case seems to have entirely left out accellerative factors.

It isn't that there isn't hope, it is that I suspect there's not a lot of hope for technological solutions.

Flick said...

Thank you for the blog that refreshes as it enlightens. God help me, after twenty some years of low to no exposure to T.V. I am still infected. Do be careful.

I wanted to recommend an excellent article on energy and why we don't need more by Josh Kearns at joshkearns.blogspot.com. He is so right about this, but we still need to replace the energy sources that we actually do need, as well as meeting the needs of the many in this world who don't have access.
To be done sanely the most promising technology I have read about is biodiesel from algae. Up to 100 times the potential of many terrestial oil crops on yield per acre and no need to use productive food farming land. It can use marginal water including brackish water. This technology uses waste carbon and nitrogen in the growing process helping keep some of this out of the air and water. It is also versatile and can be used to make several fuel types. There are some 400 species of oil producing algae and a search is on for the best species to use and the best process for growing. Many pilot projects are and have been happening, and large scale applications are underway in South Africa. New Zealand is also exploring the possibilities.

Other techno fairy schemes are underway everywhere and I'm sure none will be perfect and many will be helpful. A good masonry stove can burn clean and efficiently so that little wood is used and creosote does not build up. Passive solar, geothermal tech and just using roofing that has a suitable color to reflect or gain heat can make a huge difference in energy use. Solar ovens and well designed composting toilets can be useful. Personal products and cleaners that use no chemicals can be made at home. I could go on for the length of a book on all my favorite tech and design but most of the people reading this probably have heard of or use many of these technologies. My point is that good design and looping of resources a la permaculture principles has tremendous potential to help create a sustainable livable loveable world.(The permaculture folks also have a credit union in Santa Fe where you can put your money to work helping get loans to people building green housing that is difficult to get a mortgage on.)

The allure of techno solutions is their promise of something for nothing or at least not much ,and not today anyway. This is just about always a lie. Mindful design delivers more, but the most elegant solutions are almost always the ancient reliable tried and true. You can install solar panels and the best inverter and pay up the wazoo while creating huge amounts of toxic crap in the manufacturing process or you can get up when the sun rises and go to bed when it gets dark and pay nothing while creating no waste. The vast majority of people on this planet don't use much and they get by. We need to ask them to help us remember how it is done. That we search for the best solution and implement it everywhere is surely a huge mistake that we don't want to make again. It is this monoculture mentality that has compounded our technological blunders in the past. Diversity in solutions lessens the chances of overwhelming the earth with any one potentially bad thing. How many people using underarm deoderant spray and one kind of refrigerant does it take to totally screw up the ozone layer? By the time we even noticed it things had gotten bad. That brings us to population pressure. Come on people! We must stop breeding so much! It's insane. Sure they're cute and lovable and yes, we can probably find a way to feed a few billion more people but it won't be pretty when we hit the patches of rough weather that certainly lie ahead. That is already happening in some places. Though it means bucking our biological imperative the most loving thing we can do is have less children so that the children that do come will have a world worth being born into. And yes I do mean here in the industrialized countries where each child, like each adult, is inordinately harder on the ecosystem than the worlds average person.

Cleverness by itself creates problems, and we are such clever monkeys. It is creativity and cleverness in the service of wisdom that can help save our butts and the butts of our fellow species. Wisdom is the key. The precautionary principle is a good base. Wisdom flows from love of the earth and each other, keeping the larger perspective always in mind. All of creation should be valued for its own sake and not for its uses. Clean air earth and water are a birthright of all creatures and should always have first priority. The health of the whole and the individual are inseparable in the long run.
Speaking of long run it is time to shut my yap.
Thanks for a wonderful and useful blog. It is an inspiration and a refuge. Check out mindfully.org for good pondering and oilgae.com for a quick shot of technohope! If you are in serious need of a lift find Reverend Billy and the Church of Stop Shopping. That's revbilly.com I think

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