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We have a fixed rate mortgage (affordable) and live in the country. We have a backup gas generator, and waterfurnace. We have few debts....some medical, some student loans, but that's it. No credit card debt on our card.

Does anyone have any advice on how to garden or what to do to be ready for the upcoming inflationary depression?

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2007-12-06T10:54:00.000-08:00

This is well written, thanks for taking the time to put this into words. Based on this and other things I've read, I'm pretty confident is some kind of market crash next year, and am trying to plan now.

We are trying to rid ourselves of debt, but coming off house build that went over, we are having a hard time figuring out how to handle it. We have $20k on credit cards, $180K 30 year mortgage, and owe some to family members. But we have an ecological home with 9+ acres and solar panels.

We've been thinking about cashing out our retirement (just over $100k) to pay off credit cards, car loan, and family, which would leave a little money. With the 10% penalty and taxes, I hesitate. But assuming the market is going to crash, it might. Do we then refinance the mortgage? Or hold the cash?

Any advice greatly appreciated.

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2007-11-29T13:08:00.000-08:00

Brian, thanks for a better idea of theoretical timelime. I'd been thinking we had a few more years -- my goal is to be on our own plot of land by no later than 2010 -- 2009 would be better. Cost of real estate is slowly flipping here between the cit and the country, w/ city prices edging up here and there. Yes, our funds are currently in an FDIC protected bank -- I'm kind of horrified that any other type exists, to be honest.

Sharon, cheap here currently means unworkable, but we're continuing to keep an eye on things. Ideally, we'd like to stay in/near the folks, even if it costs a little more. We may spend some time next year learning more about foreclosures and how that market works. My BIL Ray may be able to help us with understanding that market...

Meantime, I'm looking to re-build the garden, but will probably put a lot of it into pots or those SWCs, for less work a couple years down the line! And, we'll get in that rainwater catchment building practice while we're here -- one of our contributions to keeping the family farm going.

Thanks for the examples, discussion of the dollar/euro, and suggestions!

Heather, I don't know if we'll see rampant inflati...

2007-11-29T11:40:00.000-08:00

Heather, I don't know if we'll see rampant inflation at all, I don't know what we'll see. I think money will be around for a while - we just may not have much or it won't be worth much.

Can I make one suggestion - if you can, consider buying in a comparatively inexpensive area, and buying now. If you can save
10K this year, buy soon, and then do the same thing from you mortgage position - buy beneath your means, if you can find a good foreclosed property do that, if not, buy much smaller than you would have ideally. And then live as cheap as possible and pay down the mortgage fast. That way you get the benefits of living on your land and improving your property with the benefits of having little debt (eventually). Or consider buying with friends or extended family.

But my personal take is that I'd want to be on my land sooner than later - soil improvement takes time, getting fruit and berry bushes producing takes time, building community takes time, building informal economic structures takes time. Everything you need to do to get ready takes time - so if you can do it (and not everyone can) the best possible hedge might be to do exactly what you are doing - scrimp and save - but from your property. You might find an owner financed property in a rural area, for example. But the sooner you get there and start putting down literal and metaphorical roots, the more secure you'll probably be.

Sharon

Heather - I gave some dire examples to try to illu...

2007-11-29T08:46:00.000-08:00

Heather - I gave some dire examples to try to illustrate the point more clearly. We don't measure inflation in months yet, and we'll go through regular inflation before we get to hyper-inflation and people giving up on the dollar, and even then there will still be MONEY around, it will just be foreign. How quickly will things get bad is a difficult question, but even I'd be surprised if dollars were worthless in the US before 2010. (1/3rd of its current value? maybe, 1/1000th? I sure hope not, and if that starts up, quick folk can bail out on the way down.) Things can change quickly when people get panicky, so keep an eye out, but slower change is more likely.

If you can save, save and use it to buy up stuff when it is cheaper. Some people are already beginning to save in euros instead of dollars, and I think that will become more attractive and popular over time. When EXACTLY should one switch their savings from dollars to euros? Tricky, ask a professional, and even then they are largely guessing. There is a trade-off between protection and liquidity. Dollars are easier to spend, Euros are probably safer. My meager savings is still in dollars, 'cause we figure we might need to use it in the next few years. If you're saving for a big purchase more than a few years from now, Euros might make more sense. Odds are high that you can move them back to dollars later if need be. Moving the currency back and forth is a hassle, and the money-changers take a little bit of it, but if you foresee the dollar eroding badly between now and when you hope to spend the money it might be worth it. Likewise, the banking system is in trouble, so picking a safe bank might be tricky. I don't have any real advice there, its kinda a crap shoot. FDIC covers assets of 100,000$ or less per depositor, so that even if your bank goes under the Feds will pay you back (as long as you pick an FDIC bank). So even if your bank goes down, it is likely to be a lot of hassle but not a terrible problem for the small depositors. (Hmm, I assume FDIC covers Euro denominated funds, but it might not, if not that would change the strategies a lot.)

Maybe things are bad enough to prefer Euros, or for people over the FDIC limits to look for other options. But things aren't bad enough to avoid saving entirely if you can save! We're in a house, largely because the mortgage is cheaper than local rent. If you're in a place where rent is cheaper than local mortgage, then renting and saving is a fine strategy, and you just need to keep on top of things if inflation starts heating up badly.

-Brian M.

Heather, I think it really depends on the situatio...

2007-11-29T08:07:00.000-08:00

Heather, I think it really depends on the situation. As you say, none of us know. I certainly think there'll be a lot of property available for reasonable prices in the coming years. Whether any of us will have the cash for it, I don't know. How good are you at saving money? I know that probably sounds too blunt, but I ask because if you are good at it, and nothing awful happens to your jobs, you'll probably manage. If not, it can be tough.

This kind of answers my question, which was whether or not there's a point to saving money... Since we now rent at half what our mortgage was (plus it includes our heat), we can now really save money even with me out of work (partly recuperation time and partly because I do most of the bookkeeping, saving, growing, and sewing -- new job!). So in theory, we've gone from nearly $0 savings to ~$10,000 per year. It's rather mindboggling, actually. The house sale helped as well as the move -- we used the proceeds to pay off the car, one school loan, a couple of minor but high-interest credit cards, and a huge chunk of the best credit card (I prefer to use it for online purchases).

I guess I'm just wondering, with the way some folks are talking, if we're going to have a money-based system of any sort left in a few years?

Heather, forgive my butting in, but if none of the...

2007-11-29T07:49:00.000-08:00

Heather, forgive my butting in, but if none of the sibs have children and none of them are planning any of them, then L's son in the only one in the next generations. What would happen if you and L put money toward helping the most likely sibs buy the farm in return for a life time right to live there and and option for L's son to buy or inherit?

Maybe I wasn't clear. I didn't say only Lyle has a child. There are 5 siblings in Lyle's generation. Only one of the 5 can afford to buy the farm (buy out the other sibs' shares, in other words) -- and it isn't Lyle. And that sib has two children. Not tthat this guarantees one of them will want to live at the farm as adults, but it's likely.

In the short-term, that means we will have to find another places to live. Ray (the sib w/$) doesn't want to maintain additional properties if he doesn't have to -- he may have more than us, but he isn't a millionaire. So, probably he'd want to move his family here.

Things are in flux, and I need to figure out our options.

When I was in Bulgaria in 1992, 2 years into their...

2007-11-29T07:10:00.000-08:00

When I was in Bulgaria in 1992, 2 years into their special period, they had faced a 1 year 40% decrease in real PPP, and everyone had at least one foot (often both feet) in the informal economy. Cheap ass pornography printed on newsprint rather than magazine print and sold on the streets on little tables was in fact one of the commodities I remember. Also many old women made large batches of homecooked goods and sold them for the lunch-trade on card tables in the streets like permanent bake-sales. I don't think I ever saw both at the same table, but it would have been in the spirit of the times.

Neither of us can really effect the macroeconomics, and you're right the message either way is prepare for the informal economy. In family finance one way tends to help children and the other the elderly, and so again its kinda a toss up. For us, 4 of our 6 parents are far better off than we are. Its the governmental finance bit, I can't see how to sort out. Workers can probably cope with debt slavery or hyper-inflation. But what the heck is the Federal government going to do with its 8billion$ debt if we go into long term depression without a lot of inflation? It can barely service its debt as it is. Cut programs AND raise taxes? A lot? That will hurt the elderly at least as much as bad inflation will. And it will hurt the worst off elderly, who rely on government support, and government aid in health care, rather than the moderately well-off elderly who once thought they had enough money to retire. Can families cope with their debt burden? Maybe with difficulty. Can corporations? Some yes, some no, let some fail rather than play with moral hazard. Can the government? Not in any way I can see with out adding a huge burden to the already over-burdened families. And of course, the government is the one player in this drama that can actually effect the macroeconomics directly, by printing more money.

-Brian M.

I agree broadly with you analysis, but a long enou...

2007-11-29T05:55:00.000-08:00

I agree broadly with you analysis, but a long enough period of growing inflation risks causing the elderly to sell off their assets early on, in the attempt to keep things going, which results in them not having a lot of informal economy opportunities.

And this may be purely personal - my husband and I have 7 parents between us. DH is an only child and I'm the only one who gets along with my Dad (and not that well ;-)). I'm personally much more scared of millions of destitute baby boomers, 7 of whom will be my parents than I am of debt slavery ;-). Of course, I've been paying down my debt like crazy for the last few years, but haven't done a damn thing to reduce my parent load ;-) (That last was a joke, in case anyone I love is reading this).

More seriously, I think we agree that either way we end up in the informal economy. The question is how we get there. I'm simply not convinced one choice is vastly better than the other.

But the larger truth is this - it is time for all of us to put a foot in the informal economy, so that we at least have a plans.

Me, I'm going to write apocalyptic pornography and sell it on the street ;-).

Sharon

Thank you, Brian and Sharon, for explaining about ...

2007-11-29T05:29:00.000-08:00

Thank you, Brian and Sharon, for explaining about hyper-inflation and debt. I also did some reading about pre-WW2 Germany, which was informative. I do get it now.

Susan in Ontario