Comments on Casaubon's Book: Could Rationing Be Made Palatable?

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Dear Sharon,I am a regular reader of your blog, an...

2007-07-17T06:12:00.000-07:00

Dear Sharon,

I am a regular reader of your blog, and also the Development Director for TEQs (Tradable Energy Quotas) - the tradable system advocated by Monbiot and many others.

I just wanted to thank you for your insightful discussion of this topic, and will certainly take many of your points on board.

Best wishes,
Shaun

Hi Sharon,It's interesting that after WWI, Hoover ...

2007-06-19T15:16:00.000-07:00

Hi Sharon,

It's interesting that after WWI, Hoover was effective in leading the efforts to feed Europe, which, of course, is why Truman asked him to lead the effort after WWII. His failure in this second effort speaks to an interesting change in the American culture, or at least a change in the dynamics of consumerism. Hoover's tragic belief that the people would do the right thing because it was the right thing to do made sense somehow during WWI, but failed miserably during the depression and onwards. While not conservative myself by any means, I can sympathize with a point of view suggesting good should not be mandated by a dubiously trustworthy government. It's a very interesting point you made in your answering comment, of wondering what can be learned from the WWI model. Similarly, with government controlling a rationing effort, the temptation to use rationing as a political tool in our system would be simply irresistable to those seeking power. Self rationing, similar to your 90% effort, seems a more pure, wholesome approach.

I've blathered on quiet enough, I'm sure, but one item I do not see us address enough in the effort to curb consumerism is the need to attack free and easy credit. Easy credit, beginning with the Diner's Club card in the '50's, has been the hand maiden for the Madison Avenue driven commerciality, becoming the substitute for the "company store" to keep people in servitude. Why self ration when we can have what we want when we want, as long as we can keep ourselves from thinking about the future hours labored to work off the debt. Preaching to the choir here, I know. Thanks for another thought provoking piece - I very much appreciate the scholarship behind this essay.

cheers,
Dave

Good article, Sharon. I'ved bookmarked it on a co...

2007-06-19T13:57:00.000-07:00

Good article, Sharon. I'ved bookmarked it on a couple of computers to make sure I have it again for later, for when I want to pass it on to others to read.

I too have read the Bentley book and numerous documents on U.S. and U.K. during WWII. Your article is a very good summary, and makes very good points about how to proceed with fairness and equity. And I would like to see rationing happen sooner rather than later (especially with energy), before the shortages appear, and to have them equally distributed on a per-person basis to be fair to rich and poor alike. I'm still not sure how a tradeable enery rationing plan would work, but would prefer to see something in place so that those who do conserve can possible "trade" their savings for things they do need. And I agree that price controls only will not do it and unfair to the poor.

Keep up your quality writing.

Kevin in Iowa

I've been working on peak oil stuff for a couple y...

2007-06-18T07:23:00.000-07:00

I've been working on peak oil stuff for a couple years, but clearly not as much as you. But everytime I run my strategies I reach the same road blocks. The people should prefer rationing systems to rationing by price. But it seems that the Big Oil companies, even once we get to serious shortages, ought to prefer rationing by price and shortages, because their profits are tied to price as much as they are to volume. As crises mount this gets called "profiteering" and is perceived as anti-social. Eventually a government steps in and starts more heavily regulating an industry. But Big Oil, knows all this and has huge PR and lobbying experience. They'll block the perception of profiteering as long as they can, and block government action even longer. When it comes down to it the corporations just seem to have so much more power than the people that it is hard to imagine how our interests could get into the mix. As you say, we probably won't even have representatives at the table. Our power is very small compared to that of corporations, and the little power we have (such as altering how we spend our money en masse, not the outlier individuals) is currently very tied to advertizing and spin. But selling rationing to OTHER CORPORATIONS, now that has potential. As things get bad for the people, it will get bad for a lot of other corporations besides big oil too, and maybe they'll have the power and incentive to make rationing happen. It just seems that how well the people are willing to tolerate a rationing system is far less decisive that how well the corporations are willing to tolerate it, since they have the power and the people don't.
-Brian M.

Brian, it was a very mixed bag - large industrial ...

2007-06-18T06:27:00.000-07:00

Brian, it was a very mixed bag - large industrial producers often were very supportive of rationing in part because of the enormous government military contracts at stake. On the other hand, people in smaller industries or those that weren't in full production often weren't thrilled about rationing. There was strong opposition by corporations *after* WWII to government implemented rationing - in fact, advertising implying that people who wanted rationing back so the US could meet its famine relief commitments (which it failed to meet) were anti-democratic and selfish.

One of the most important factors used by the OPA was that members of its board existed to represent business and consumers seperately - that is, the board was fairly evenly balanced between consumer advocates and business advocates, rather like having Ralph Nader and Lee Iacocca negotiating. And I ought to have said that I think *that* part is simply unlikely to happen again. So yes, you are right. Now the thing about the ODP, is that it might well sell to big oil once they start experiencing serious shortages. So I can imagine circumstances in which businesses can be persuaded, but it is worth noting that sheer corporate power we're up against is a real problem.

Ares, that's a really interesting analysis. I wonder if you could manage shortages - certainly, the sheer number of consumer goods we see influences our buying patterns.

Sharon

When we were talking about your post, my wife aske...

2007-06-16T05:33:00.000-07:00

When we were talking about your post, my wife asked how much commercial PR campaign there was against rationing, when it had these favorable public receptions. Was big meat, big sugar, and big wheat trying to undermine the WWII rationing system in public? Or were they behind the deal? Were they undermining it but only behind the scenes and not via PR campaigns? I can easily imagine selling rationing to Americans as patriotic, generous, fair, and far better than rationing by price or having shortages. I have troubles imagining a rationing support campaign that would hold its own against a concerted effort from Big Oil to obstruct or undermine it.
-Brian M.

Could we rationing by social norms?I have two inte...

2007-06-15T15:31:00.000-07:00

Could we rationing by social norms?

I have two interesting thoughts. First that "information is power". If we had figures of "average per capita consumption", by country, state, city, etc, people would know what a "fair share" might look like, even if categories were included: youth, singles, elderly, families, etc.

Second I consider a conversation I had with a coworker. Our accountant started buying kitchen snacks from Sam's club a few years ago, cheaper prices, and as you might imagine, over the years of this I'm SURE consumption has gone way up, compared to the days when we had a little variety "snack pack".

Anyway we questioned what would change behavior, reduce unhealthy overconsumption - like raising prices from $0.40 each to as high as $2.00 each perhaps, with "profits" going to a charity perhaps.

But an alternative approach we thought about was rationing through perception. Specifically, our accountant put out ALL the snacks, so we'd see all these boxes and THINK there's abundance and consume more. In comparison after a while we'd go way down in visually supplies before her next refilling. I'm sure consumption SPIKED with visual surpluses and declined when visual supplies ran low.

So the obvious solution, our accountant should have kept supplies in a back room, and brought out just a fraction every week, perhaps based on how much she had and how often she wanted to restock, and let "demand" deal with supply like that.

Anyway, it would seem there's interesting socialogical experiments possible, to see how people react to appearances of surplus and appearances of shortages, I mean independent of price. If you go to a party and see tons of food, you pig out, or at least it makes it easy. If you see just a little, you scale back your gluttonous appetite and leave something for someone else.

It would seem hard to imagine a PURE voluntary rationing could be done, allowing everyone to "take what they need, no more".

It's a tricky business, since the opposite human behavior of hoarding can as well come out in fear of shortages. If your local gas station was empty last week and fills up, and you get there first, do you "top it off" because you don't know when you'll get another chance or "take what you need" based on faith more will be available later? Obviously depends whether you can trust it'll be available.

Anyway, to me this shows an "upside" to the U.S. gasoline refinery limits, even if the result is a higher price and profits. And its fun to think that conservation is what's needed to bring prices down.

Previously I'd think "shortages" are bad (like caused in the 70's when mandated gas prices caused stations to be sold out), but perhaps irregular shortages are good, because it keeps people aware of the value of conservation.

It's most interesting compared to the REAL illusion, that the economy can run blindly into future shortages merely because of memory of past success to meet demand.

Shortages have another advantage -people have to think more seriously "What if I CAN'T fill my tank" next week, how will I get to work? Necessity is the mother of invention, and fear is sometimes beneficial, when there's something to be done about the threat.

My English stepmom can rememberpostwar ration/coup...

2007-06-15T10:20:00.000-07:00

My English stepmom can remember
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Farah, actually, I've read Paradox of Plenty, but ...

2007-06-15T06:07:00.000-07:00

Farah, actually, I've read Paradox of Plenty, but Schenone's argument is slightly different - it is true people actually consumed more, but that mostly came out waste reductions, rather than production increases. She cites figures based on household home economic data that suggest that it wasn't merely the way people felt about what they were doing - they were buying less food and getting more of it out of their gardens during the middle and early part of the war, but that did change at the end. Randolph argues that the change came in part because of confusing messages - the "everything is better" message suddenly replaced by new crisis.

Highest rates of meat consumption in the US are listed by Bentley as in 1910, with a slow but steady drop through the war, and a (small) bump in 1917-18, then a decline into the depression, and a rise during the war years. I've also noted that while grain consumption did rise steadily, liquor production dropped like a stone - some of that grain was going into people's mouths as bread. I like Levenstein's book, but I think there's additional evidence for marginal success - I don't claim more than that.

Hoover's strategy *absolutely did not* work after WWII - and it was a mistake to put him in charge. I don't agree that a purely voluntary project is possible - but I do think that the WWI case represents an interestingly useful model. Barbara Grace argues that the failure of the WWI model was in large part due to organizational problems, in direct contrast to Levenstein.

I'm no fan of Hooverism in any sense - but I do think that if we could make voluntary rationing really work, it offers the possibility of engaging political conservatives in energy rationing - which would be worth a *lot*.

We could also pull out revolutionary and civil war examples to demonstrate that voluntary boycotts and self rationing have worked in the past - even the British model worked for 5 years after the war.

I'll agree that WWII didn't represent a serious test of our ability to handle *shortage* - as JK Galbraith said, never has so much credit been given for living without so little. Most of the real extremes of shortage were experienced by people who were already poor. On the other hand, even among them there was a willingness to participate in rationing and other war programs. Poor African Americans were both angry and disaffected during the War, for excellent reasons. On the other hand, 90% of poor black southern families victory gardened - up by almost 20% over the depression years. 67% purchased war bonds and more than 70% approved of rationing according to Bentley. So even among people who *were* experiencing real hardship - remember, malnutrition was a real phenomenon then - rationing was politically possible.

But ultimately, in the short term, what matters is whether rationing could be initiated successfully - sustaining it is an issue, but first we've got to get past *starting*.

There certainly were black markets, and eliminating them by making energy rationing tradable simply makes sense - no argument there.

Sharon

Thank you once again for an inspiring post. I’ve b...

2007-06-14T23:51:00.000-07:00

Thank you once again for an inspiring post. I’ve been thinking lately about what might have happened if W had asked Americans to conserve and reduce oil consumption after September 11, instead of asking us to buy and spend(our role as consumers/patriots). It’s too bad that we will never know. Our present and our children’s future would be quite different.

I hate to break this to you but your information o...

2007-06-14T23:44:00.000-07:00

I hate to break this to you but your information on voluntary rationing in WWI isn't correct, it's based on the way people felt about what they were doing.

Harvey Levenstein's book "Paradox of Plenty" cites evidence that--Hoover's despair--consumption of meat and bread actually went up. It was worst at the end of the war when the appeals to save food to help Europe fell on deaf ears.

Similarly, you can acclaim the rationing of WWII but the food supply in the US was so safe and food was so plentiful that it did not form a real test: one of the reasons US troops caused so much resentment in the UK was because they were visibily incredibly well fed. Levenstein found information on calorie intake for new recruits and the food availble per soldier was as high as 5,000 calories. US soldiers came out of basic training having put on weight.

What is true is that the US goverment was incredibly good about making people feel as if they were doing something, and that can be harnessed again. But real, painful rationing of the kind that would be needed wasn't experienced in the US in the twentieth century.

A better "test case", and a depressing one, was the UK election in 1950. Britain was still experiencing bread rationing, an act of pure self-sacrifice to enable wheat to be exported to starving Europe. The Tories ran a campaign which was basically "us first" and an end to bread rationing, and won the election. (And I haven't even begun to tell you about the widespread blackmarket for all goods during the war).

Thankyou for such an empowering and informative po...

2007-06-14T19:05:00.000-07:00

Thankyou for such an empowering and informative post,...there was a lot I didn't know about here, makes me wish my grandparents were still alive and I could access their wonderful experiences. In Australia we are experiencing this rationing with the water and potentially facing large increases in food, vegetable and electricity prices. I think a lot of people would prefer to have a reasonable ration of these things rather than paying huge prices that freeze out the least well off. We are in an election year and both sides of Govt are desperate to avoid any unpopular policies, so nothing really brave is being done, which is extremely frustrating. We are going to have to face this sooner than I think a lot of people anticipated, but the knowledge is out there. Thanks again, knowledge really is a powerful thing.