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<a href="https://blog.xuite.net/caat555106/123456789/587058953-2020%E9%85%92%E5%BA%97%E5%85%BC%E5%B7%AE%E9%85%92%E5%BA%97%E5%85%BC%E8%81%B7+%E5%8F%B0%E5%8C%97%E9%85%92%E5%BA%97%E7%B6%93%E7%B4%80%3A%E6%A2%81%E6%9B%89%E5%B0%8A%2F%E6%A2%81%E5%B0%8F%E5%B0%8A" title="酒店兼差不是一個複雜的工作環境?" rel="nofollow">酒店兼差不是一個複雜的工作環境?</a>酒店晚上營業,下午時段店家場地借給午茶,就是在那樣的小包廂裡,一個客人一個小姐,大約五十分鐘的時間,就看小姐怎麼讓客人在這短短的時間小小的包廂裡喜歡上自己。<a href="https://blog.xuite.net/hc555106/123456789/589028130" title="酒店小姐上班通常會取什麼名字?" rel="nofollow">酒店小姐上班通常會取什麼名字?</a>有客人喜歡,才會有指台,<a href="https://hc555106.pixnet.net/blog/post/470168363-%e9%85%92%e5%ba%97pt%28part-time%29%e9%85%92%e5%ba%97%e5%b0%8f%e5%a7%90%e5%8e%bb%e9%85%92%e5%ba%97%e4%b8%8a%e7%8f%ad%e9%83%bd%e4%b8%80%e5%ae%9a%e8%a6%81" title="酒店小姐去酒店上班都一定要出場接s嗎?" rel="nofollow">酒店小姐去酒店上班都一定要出場接s嗎?</a>才會有預約。中午十二點上班,晚上八、九點下班,換了衣服卸了妝,身邊沒有人發現我的工作特殊。一樣的一天八小時,每上一台我可以領個一千。或許吧!有的人覺得我出賣身體、出賣靈魂。但是我寧可出賣這些,也不想過像我的父母那樣的生活,那樣捉襟見肘的生活,那樣跟西家借錢還東家的生活,那樣無止盡為錢爭吵的生活,那樣要躲在家裡不出聲不開燈以免被發現的生活,那樣連感冒想去藥局買個成藥都要惦量惦量的生活。還記得工作第一個禮拜,我領了兩萬多的薪水。那些扣除林林總總後居然還有這樣多!這是我第一次拿著那麼多錢,我好想大聲地告訴我的父母,我會賺錢了,若是時光回溯,我是不是就可以幫上你們的忙了?大約過了兩三個月,一開始覺得「領好多錢」的感覺也沖淡了。開始審視自己要的是什麼?我想要有一個家,一個完完全全屬於我的家,一個不用因為繳不出房租被房東趕的家。於是我不再是那個滿足於一個禮拜領個三萬左右的女孩。梁爵https://www.blogger.com/profile/15249524553168374109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-60475198621916349602020-04-18T11:39:04.322-07:002020-04-18T11:39:04.322-07:002020.04.19日前親口證實酒店工作確診武漢肺炎(COVID-19、新冠肺炎)379例為台北某知...2020.04.19日前親口證實<a href="https://mra555106.pixnet.net/blog/post/229173878-%e3%80%90%e9%85%92%e5%ba%97%e8%97%9d%e5%90%8d%e3%80%91%e3%80%90%e9%85%92%e5%ba%97%e8%8a%b1%e5%90%8d%e3%80%91%e9%99%b8%e5%8a%87-%e9%9f%93%e5%8a%87-%e6%9c%80%e5%a4%af%e7%99%be" title="酒店工作" rel="nofollow">酒店工作</a>確診武漢肺炎(COVID-19、新冠肺炎)379例為台北某知名<a href="https://www.mashow.org/mashow/" title="酒店上班" rel="nofollow">酒店上班</a>酒店女公關,中央流行疫情指揮中心指揮官陳時中,該案一夕由生活單純的30多歲的家庭主婦變成高檔紅牌,戲劇化過程<a href="https://www.mashow.org/momo/" title="酒店打工" rel="nofollow">酒店打工</a>引發輿論熱議。幸好天佑台灣,確診<a href="https://www.wonderfulyou.com.tw/" title="酒店PT" rel="nofollow">酒店PT</a>女公關所接觸的人,採檢後全部陰性。早前知名酒店經紀,也在節目中透露<a href="https://www.mashow.org/emilie/" title="酒店上班" rel="nofollow">酒店上班</a>酒店小姐為何寧願隱蔽病情,也要接客的背後原因。資深酒店經紀日前在《驚爆新聞線》透露<a href="https://www.emmaforyou.com.tw/" title="八大行業" rel="nofollow">八大行業</a>在政府證實酒店女公關確診前,在2月中就有聽到一些風聲,例如他曾在2月中去台中酒店,本來要叫一個小姐進來,結果現場就有一位兄弟大哥勸阻:「這個不要叫,現在她有事情的樣子,暫時不要叫她。」當時知名酒店經紀還不知道這是什麼意思,後來才知道小姐疑似感染新冠病毒,有發燒咳嗽症狀。不過知名店經紀也透露,因為台商出手大方又慷慨,導致這些小姐寧願隱蔽病情,寧願吃個退燒藥,也要去接客,「因為年輕大概會產生呼吸困難的症狀也很少見,這些台商又帶回來給她,她再帶給我們一般的酒客。」知名酒店經紀也透露為何黑道兄弟能「超前部署」的原因,「可是她們也知道,兄弟大哥不好惹,所以她們會先告訴他們說,我有一點咳嗽有發燒,不知道有沒有感染到,這兄弟大哥就知道說這樣不要叫妳,若要去也會叫比較安全的小姐。」梁爵https://www.blogger.com/profile/15249524553168374109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-51263268154984275572019-09-17T09:37:16.567-07:002019-09-17T09:37:16.567-07:002019.09.18八大行業大多主攻男性市場,不過最近知名酒店經紀梁曉尊,要打進女性消費圈,推出「酒...2019.09.18<a href="https://mra555106.pixnet.net/blog/post/227521238-%e5%8f%b0%e5%8c%97%e5%b8%82%e9%85%92%e5%ba%97%e5%b0%8f%e5%a7%90%e9%85%92%e5%ba%97%e4%b8%8a%e7%8f%ad%e6%9c%80%e9%ab%98%e8%96%aa1%e7%af%80200%e5%85%83" title="八大行業" rel="nofollow">八大行業</a>大多主攻男性市場,不過最近知名酒店經紀<a href="https://blog.xuite.net/dd09160203/123456789/57443305" title="梁曉尊" rel="nofollow">梁曉尊</a>,要打進女性消費圈,推出「<a href="https://blog.xuite.net/caat555106/123456789/587058953" title="酒店兼差" rel="nofollow">酒店兼差</a>一週」韓國歐巴來坐檯,號稱每一位都是韓國男模,由於中南部少有牛郎店,平時被男客消費的<a href="https://blog.xuite.net/c555106/blog/38314818" title="酒店小姐" rel="nofollow">酒店小姐</a>沒有地方紓壓,得知韓國歐巴要來,讓南部酒店小姐瞬間淪陷,台南市移民署第一服務站指出,目前已將進行政治部調查,查看是否違反移民法。據<a href="https://c555106.pixnet.net/blog" title="酒店經紀" rel="nofollow">酒店經紀</a>了解,業者號稱韓國歐巴都是男模級,在預約前可以看到個人自拍照以及身高、體重、陰莖(老二)尺度照片,但要找韓國歐爸坐檯消費可不便宜,除了坐檯費還要付包廂費與酒錢,包廂一共有5間,奢華級的包廂要價8000元,而韓國歐巴的檯費一個小時就要3000元,酒錢另算,但自從推出歐巴坐檯後,造成轟動,不少酒店妹要揪團包場,預約時間排滿滿。有消費者透露,做韓國歐巴的檯,可以將歐巴包出場,但一次就要包兩個牛郎,一次要3小時起跳,因為業者會擔心牛郎在外場的安全,另外也有提供俗稱「勾」舔盤的性服務,但至少要來消費兩次,才有機會可以嘗試陰部按摩費用1次5000元。梁爵https://www.blogger.com/profile/15249524553168374109noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-46508482288895763282011-10-07T08:00:23.466-07:002011-10-07T08:00:23.466-07:00Man I must say your mind works regarding all the t...Man I must say your mind works regarding all the this. 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I'm not base...Stephen b,<BR/><BR/>Just a quick clarification. I'm not based in Afghanistan. It's a blogger bug that when you select 'not specified' as your country option, it switches to Afghanistan on some browsers. (For the record, I'm not based in the US either).<BR/><BR/>However, thanks for not automatically assuming that *everyone* in the world is a US citizen! :-)<BR/><BR/>Daharja.Leehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15497683565965322222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-52003994243409333972008-01-10T21:31:00.000-08:002008-01-10T21:31:00.000-08:00It doesn't help the hundreds of thousands who aren...It doesn't help the hundreds of thousands who aren't, but how many of the billion urban slum dwellers were peasants who couldn't make enough cash to pay their land taxes? It's not that hard to turn them back into farmers (or farm labor) when local and export prices are high.<BR/> <BR/>My neighborhood is about half spanish-speaking immigrants, and a really large number of them are sending money home to save the family farm. Maybe because we're in the Midwest, so all the guacheros come up here and work on dairy farms and in packing houses, but every little business in the immigrant business strip is either paying a mortgage here and a mortgage back home, or sending cash to the people who are still living in rural Guatemala or Mexico or Panama.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-33525801518299203122008-01-10T13:56:00.000-08:002008-01-10T13:56:00.000-08:00OK Point #1: Staniford and you are right, its urba...OK Point #1: Staniford and you are right, its urban poor slum dwellers most at risk here, and there are a billion of them. I think it is very hard to change people's behavior without photogenic suffering. But as more and more 3rd world urbanites in more parts of the world begin starving, I think that WILL begin to cause political changes both in their home countries and here. Political Will doesn't magically come from nowhere, but it can be legitimately created when people are forced to confront hard truths. Like they are going to starve unless they revolt soon. The same point is true about land title. You can push peasants off their land a little at a time. Especially if they think they can survive in the cities. But when the cities look like death traps, and you start trying to displace a lot of peasants, you get rebellions, and peasants beginning to organize. Like Chiapas. Often they fail. But even failed rebellions effect the SQ. Many, many things will change before you get to even 1 billion deaths.<BR/><BR/>#2: Oh that point totally reinforces rising food prices. What it does is argue against rising % of ethanol/total food production (the sigmasoid curve). There are 2 worries, 1) maybe there won't be enough food to go around because too much land is used for ethanol 2) maybe such food as there is will be too expensive for many people to buy. Part 2 is the status quo. It can get worse, but it is how things already are, and long have been. My point here was just that there is reason to think that food prices will rise enough that some people will continue producing food, even if ethanol keeps increasing, and even though the poor can't afford to bid up the food prices enough.<BR/><BR/>#3: Yeah I hadn't read the fertilizer competition point in the comments yet when I wrote that, its a very good point. In the short-term NG fertilizers, by 2030 peak potassium may look like a huge problem. <BR/><BR/>#5: No, I suspect the reason Brazilian ethanol works is because they grow sugarcane in such a different way than we grow corn. They use lots of cheap labor, instead of very little labor and lots of equipment and oil. Brazil still has a functioning poor peasant class. This means they can get much better EROEI. It also means that the plantation bosses have a real incentive to keep food affordable (barely) for the peasants doing their labor for them. Brazilian ethanol will NEVER make food too expensive for local peasants, because the feedback loop is built in. If it is close to happening, the bosses will plant food to sustain enough peasant to do the labor to turn the rest of the crop into ethanol. US Corn mostly lacks this feedback mechanism because you only have to keep so few people alive to bring your crop in. <BR/><BR/>Don't get me wrong, I think Staniford is on to something here, and that many first-worlders would gladly wreck the global food-system for a little extra profit. But as that happens, the wise nations-states will increasingly opt out of the global system, and try to put their national economies in order, and use more protectionist techniques, and strive for increased self-sufficiency. As he points out Russia is already working on nationalist agriculture protectionism. The worse the suffering gets, the more powerful the protectionists and revolutionaries will get. Resistance does not precede suffering very often, but long before 3 billion have died, or even 1 billion there will be plenty of resistence. It will take a lot of resistance to alter first-world behavior. But the resistence will be ramping up infectiously, as the food prices are.<BR/><BR/>-Brian MAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-11707476683857532802008-01-10T12:50:00.000-08:002008-01-10T12:50:00.000-08:00Brian, you are, of course right that the arguments...Brian, you are, of course right that the arguments are not unassailable. In fact, in the comments of the original article I actually tried to do some assailing. <BR/><BR/>I think critique #1 may be very important - Staniford acknowledges in the comments that he did not factor in the increasing ability of farmers who are being well paid to buy supplemental food, or the increasing value of food in general to farmers. But there are more than a billion poor slum dwellers today who do have little option about growing food - they have to buy it. So maybe this will be self-limiting, but perhaps not as self-limiting as you imply. <BR/><BR/>The other point that Staniford makes is that many people in the poor world don't have legal title to their land, and this is a simple fact, that has driven the expansion of industrial agriculture in foreign nations - it was not uncommon, for example, in Mexico for people simply to come home one day and find their land taken, becuase they could not prove title. Land ownership, and the right of access to land is a huge and growing global issue, and this provides an enormous incentive to displace farmers - in fact, one of the concerns I have about marginal cellulosic crops is that they *might* work - the UN FAO estimates that 2 billion people feed themselves from subsistence agriculture, mostly on marginal land it is not worth farming. Although I have deep doubts about cellulosic, I'm not especially anxious to see us come up with a way of turning very marginal land that is now feeding poor people into land that is profitable for large agricultural enterprises to claim.<BR/><BR/>Re: #2 - I get what you are saying, but as I see it, that reinforces the larger claim - that is, we'll see food prices rise on a number of grounds. Clearly I'm not following you entirely - can you clarify a little?<BR/><BR/>#3 - I agree with you that Staniford's great weakness is that he underestimates gardening and food production. But I do think there's one other major issue - the impact of this on NG fertilizer. Now we all know that's not the only way to grow food, but it is pretty much the only way to grow a lot of corn all the time. That means that fertilizer shortages, which are already occuring, may cause the biofuels industry to outbid small farmers for most fertilizers. Now I think that most small farmers shouldn't be using commercial fertilizers anyway, but that doesn't change the fact that many are dependent on them now and that the transition does require time. Again, we're at the short end of the curve here.<BR/><BR/>But yes, I think the absolute weakness of Staniford's thinking is his underestimating (he says he's softening on it) of the power of small scale food production. That said, however, biofuels do have a feedback loop here as mentioned above - they reduce the available land to do it on.<BR/><BR/>#4 - A good point<BR/><BR/>#5 - yes, but part of the reason that ethanol works in Brazil is that there's been no attempt to scale it as in the US - Brazilians already drive 1/10th (or something, I'd have to look up the exact figure) what we do, so getting half their fuel from biofuels isn't the danger that it is if we were to say we wanted to get half our fuel from biofuels (not going to happen, but you know what I mean). I think the whole point here is the scale. And even Brazilian biofuels are implicated in food security in complicated ways.<BR/><BR/>The objection I've come with is this - if corn based ethanol really has a negative EROEI as the most pessimistic analyses show, then it may be self-limiting. The other point is that if the military costs of political instability rise high enough, that may be enough.<BR/><BR/>Again, I don't claim this is all the truth in the world, but I suspect we're all better off knowing this as a possibility than not knowing it.<BR/><BR/>Thanks, as always, for the critique.<BR/><BR/>Sharonjewishfarmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17547121621115074866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-88507053534526975272008-01-10T12:43:00.000-08:002008-01-10T12:43:00.000-08:00I'm not sure, when all is said and done, that it i...I'm not sure, when all is said and done, that it is "relevant" whether or not 3 billion people starve, or 2 billion, or only 1 billion. What is most important, imo, is that we confront the fantasy that we've only got to plant more corn, or soybeans or whatever and that we've got the oil monster licked. Or that the answer is hemp or algae or switchgrass- and in just a short time it will all be business as usual, somehow running our fleet of gasoline powered cars on biodiesel produced by algae. These possibilites are there- but they are likely going to be "niche" solutions-not ones that will provide the obscene quantities of fuel that we are currently consuming.<BR/><BR/>As for electricity powering cars-with what? Exactly what will provide the quantities of electricity that we would require? <BR/><BR/>I think the OD article was an interesting analysis-I don't necessarily agree with all of it, especially as regards the growth of corn ethanol production globally.I am guessing the the low EROI would end that before it got too out of hand. However, I think the most important point is to somehow shake up those who believe that this is the solution. Educating both the general public and elected leaders is critical- banking on ethanol or other biofuels as the "solution" will only prevent doing the necessary work to restructure our society in a timely manner.<BR/><BR/>I am glad that you wrote this post Sharon and that we've all had a good discussion on it- I hope it continues in another venue where it will garner even more attention.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-41132967947680907002008-01-10T12:17:00.000-08:002008-01-10T12:17:00.000-08:00Riverbird and Brian - Thank you for your critiques...Riverbird and Brian - Thank you for your critiques - I agree, neither my analysis nor Staniford's are unassailable. Nor is it my intention to claim this will happen - merely that it could. I think that's a sufficiently serious claim in and of itself. Just as no one ever went broke underestimating the stupidity of the American public, so too, I think we've all seen the scope of our idiocy grow over the last decade or so. Peak stupid sadly doesn't seem to have happened. If it had, I wouldn't fear this.<BR/><BR/>Riverbird, I apologize for the suggestion you hadn't read the article. I sort of think we should be giving out t-shirts - "I read Stuart Staniford's whole biofuels article."<BR/><BR/>Riverbird, I think it is enormously unlikely that any large scale cellusoic or algael biofuels projects will be underway in 5 years - and I think the observation in the comments section that such projects are likely to be supplemental - in addition to food based biofuels - is probably accurate. That is, the total shortfall we're anticipating is so great that we will have an economic incentive to make biofuels out of anything we can. I've not seen any models (and I've looked) that suggest to me that cellulosic ethanol will replace food based biofuels. Brian beat me to pointing out Greenpa's article, but there are plenty of other examples of the limitations of biofuels. The problem is not that it can't be done, but the scale on which it will be done, and the speed at which it will be done.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure what gives you the impression that either I or Staniford believes that the US is going to "feed the world" - I didn't claim anything of the sort. Perhaps you misunderstood my argument about the post-WWII famine relief efforts - my claim is not that we will send food abroad, but that Americans were once subject to moral suasion that said it was wrong to allow people to starve. In this case, the response would generally not be food aid (which is after all, a very tiny percentage of our grain crop, and mostly disbursed for highly political reasons) but the stabilizing of market grain prices. <BR/><BR/>I don't lay all the problems of hunger at the door of biofuels, but it is self-evident that virtually any place we are producing biofuels is a place where we could be producing some amount of food. As the world comes closer and closer to scarcity, the urgency of producing human food where we can becomes greater - there's simply a moral priority there. It is possible to argue that there are certain net gains in food availability from limited biofuel production - for example the use of biofuels to transport food from productive farmlands to other places. But there's no moral argument for the use of food raising land for biofuels if it takes food out of people's mouths *and* there is actual scarcity - period. The right of people to eat is simply greater than the right of people to drive. Ultimately, this is an ethical issue.<BR/><BR/>Again, WVO is great, but it is such a minute percentage of the biofuels discussion that it isn't really relevant, I don't think. As the food system gets tighter, potato chips aren't going to be as necessary as potatoes.<BR/><BR/>The assertion that 3 billion people will die anyway, or that the economy will crash if oil and food prices spike would require a lot more support than you have given it - that said, I don't deny that you and Brian have a point - the system may be self-limiting. I'm not sure we should proceed on the assumption it will be, though -I don't know about you, but I've been in the peak oil world long enough to hear people assert with absolute certainty that X gas price will cause demand destruction - and we've now passed several of those X's. So again, I'd require a good deal more evidence for the notion that no one will be buying ethanol because the economy will be toast within 5 years. I don't deny the possibility, I simply deny that you've made a case for it.<BR/><BR/>It is hardly my claim (which you know if you read this blog) that all our problems are due to ethanol. But neither is it my claim that all our problems are so complex that it doesn't matter what we do about biofuels - the truth is (as always) in the grey areas, and the outcomes are far from certain. My own major concern about this is the very near term issue here - that is, it always takes longer to turn the ship around than we think. Given existing policies, we might well get 5 years into this before we get what happens. <BR/><BR/>I do agree that in the longer term, this is unlikely to progress towards infinity - but the reality is that we can't afford 3 more years of ethanol growth, or the drawdown of agricultural soils in the midwest, or the aquifer depletion - we need to get out of the ethanol game ASAP. And no, I don't think in that very short term, we have any choice but to give up ethanol production - there is no alternate technology that can be applied that quickly.<BR/><BR/>Sharon<BR/><BR/>Brian, I agrejewishfarmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17547121621115074866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-90367624521050448842008-01-10T12:00:00.000-08:002008-01-10T12:00:00.000-08:00thanks for the link. and just to be clear, i am n...thanks for the link. and just to be clear, i am not a switchgrass backer, per se, nor even biofuels in general - as mentioned, i think the future of transport will be electric.riverbirdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512672669673856369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-69348553877068908642008-01-10T11:08:00.000-08:002008-01-10T11:08:00.000-08:00Oh also Riverbird, Greenpa at http://littleblogint...Oh also Riverbird, Greenpa at <BR/>http://littlebloginthebigwoods.blogspot.com/2007_10_01_archive.html<BR/><BR/>has a pretty good discussion of the problems involved with ethanol from switchgrass.<BR/><BR/>-Brian MAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-38238018367533432362008-01-10T11:02:00.000-08:002008-01-10T11:02:00.000-08:00OK Staniford's analysis is cool and chilling, but ...OK Staniford's analysis is cool and chilling, but it isn't bulletproof. Kudos to him BTW this is very much meant as impressed constructive criticism, not an attack. A lot of the links in his reasoning are GUESSES, as he points out. Here is my list of reasons to think things aren't quite so bad.<BR/><BR/>1) the 5-7 year estimate on the Sigismoid curve is for OUR (US) corn crop production, not global food production. Even if Staniford is right, there is every reason to think it would take longer to spread extensively elsewhere. He's Sigismoid centered at 2014.2 for this, but it is still in early enough days that there has got to be a fair bit of uncertainty on that one. (Likewise, I saw the argument that US ethanol is infectiously doubling every 3 years, but not the comparable global argument). The US could be in a bad food situation soon, and if we aren't broke by then we will pay other countries for food, pricing the poor out of the market, but also stimulating agriculture in other parts of the world, that have avoided it because they can't compete with America's massive corn subsidies.<BR/><BR/>2) A lot depends on the continued profitability of ethanol, and its profitability under different situations. This can be subjected to feedback cycles. You say that oil prices going up ought to trigger an increase in growth of ethanol production, indeed, that corn is indexed to oil prices by biofuels arbitrage. Well that's ONE link. But that isn't the only link! I'll bet oil price is also a major factor in the COST structure of the corn production in the first place. When oil prices go up, but corn prices don't, ethanol growth is triggered, and that LEADS to corn prices going up again. But if oil and corn go up together, ethanol retains its shaky profitability, and there isn't an incentive for growth. 1997-2007 corn has been volitile, but it hasn't been exponential. Sustained corn cost increases might well be enought to knock out the profitability of ethanol, even if gas keeps going up. If gas and corn go up in price at comparable rates, we might keep comparable %s of food supply vs biofuel. Now you talk about this as your second way out. But you describe it as a bidding war between gas tanks and dinner tables. My point is that IF oil is a major component in US corn production costs, then oil prices can trigger food price increases directly, rather than just via bidding war.<BR/><BR/>3) Just how vulnerable are the world's poor to food price doubling or quadrupling? There is a lot of guesswork here, and a lot could change. The food/income elasticity in a world with 12% food insecurity, may be very different than food/income elasticity in a world with 61% food insecurity. Very poor people have a strong incentive to subsistence farm, rather than rely on trying to earn money and use money to buy food. The powers that be have tried hard, with lots of success, to squelch subsistance farming, and get poor folk to move to the city, and rely on the cash economy for food. But as food prices rise out of reach, it has got to become tempting to go back to the farms, or garden in the informal economy, or get food in ways disconnected from the direct cash economy. Or heck to produce food and sell it. Even people without "secure title to land" may still see significant income increases from food price increases, even if they can't capture all of the difference themselves. You say "The poor will not be able to bid up food prices by factors of two and four and keep eating" it is closer to say, "If the price of food doubles or quadruples, the poor will not be able to continue trading money for food." If they have no other options than BUYING food, they are hosed, but as Sharon never tires of pointing out most DO have other options than buying it.<BR/><BR/>4) Likewise remember that a chunk of the gas price increases in the US are really devaluation of the dollar. If corn prices in DOLLARS go up by x4 that does not necessarily mean that average global food prices are going to quadruple. <BR/><BR/>5) Biofuel often works quite differently in other countries that it does in the US. Brazilian sugarcane fuel, just doesn't have the same dynamics as US corn ethanol. Hell, much of the profitability of US corn ethanol come straight from the massive corn subsidies of the US.<BR/><BR/>OK so where are we overall? The US does systematically prefer to feed our cars and cows than the world's poor, but that isn't news. US corn ethanol is growing infectiously, and may be a serious dent in US food corn production very soon, which will probably effect world food prices too. Staniford is bang on there. Indeed, oil prices ought to cause rises in global food prices for several reasons. Rising global food prices are going to price many poor people out of the market increasing global food insecurity. I agree so far.<BR/><BR/>But surely the rest of the world will respond by agricultural protectionism, many poor people will increase subsistance farming, and food production outside of the cash economy, and people will work hard to continue devaluing the dollar, and weaning themselves off cheap US corn. Other countries will view dependence on US corn, the way we view dependence on foreign oil. 3 billion back in poverty in the next 10 years I can easily believe. 3 billion leaving the cash workforce to subsistance farm, sure. 3 Billion dead? Maybe, but this isn't yet a smoking gun for that gloomy prescription. Hell, the poor will rise up violently before 3 billion starve, and even the US can't kill billions without it transforming our society. <BR/>-Brian MAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-91356097155923651782008-01-10T10:11:00.000-08:002008-01-10T10:11:00.000-08:00Sharon, I did read the article, carefully and in f...Sharon, I did read the article, carefully and in full. Frankly, it precisely makes and supports my point. The entire article is about corn based ethanol. He does make one paragraph mention of cellulose and that it's a couple years out yet, so I understand your timeline concern. I also get the main thrust of your article here. However, I think the article you reference and base your argument is so full of holes, I don't want to spend 80 pages taking it apart. Call me lazy.<BR/><BR/>But I think you're missing some of the larger context of the whole peak oil response which is built around the notion of small local solutions. The idea that US agriculture is going to feed the world through the Decline is ridiculous - so forget 'just food distribution'. Solutions are small and local. In my case, WVO is from making potato chips, no meat industry involved. So while you may have specific argument against any particular solution, ultimately is irrelevant because what works for me in my region will necessarily be different than yours.<BR/><BR/>I am all for the sentiment of helping all those starving, but again I think this needs to be put in full context. Prior to the industrial age, people were hungry and people died of starvation. After the oil age the same will be true. The problem here is many-fold and to place it on the shoulders of ethanol and biofuels is myopic. <BR/><BR/>Human consumption of food resources has already surpassed the carrying capacity of the planet, next year it will be worse. We are outstripping the planet because we have been able to with cheap fuel. The planet is overpopulated because we can allow it to be because of the energy capacity made available by oil. The starvation problem you are crying wolf about has been created by our very climbing to the peak of the industrial age, generating overly gross populations and consumption that the earth itself otherwise could not carry. So like it or not, 3 million people will starve to death, but not because of biofuels.<BR/><BR/>The article you reference also fails, because by the time oil scenarios kick in and food/ fuel prices spike like you're suggesting, the rest of the economy would be crashing around it, so the notion of unaffordable prices won't be relevant, because there won't even be "prices" as money itself becomes worthless. Which gets me back to small, local solutions, trading directly with folks you know and all the LETS. If you want to help starving people in third world countries, donate to heifer.org or pick up your family and move over there and help them get food production going.<BR/><BR/>Please don't take this as a criticism. I appreciate your work and am a regular reader. I just fundamentally disagree on this post, and not even so much with you as the article you based your work on. I think his original work at oil drum has a very narrow perspective and leaves many factors out, basic economics being one and general application of what this whole peak oil solutions movement is supposedly about. We aren't going to feed the world, the world is going to feed itself - the balance of the population will re-orient itself through a large die-off - we're beyond capacity. He also ignores the fact that the future of transport is most likely to be electric, not liquid fuels, as well as the fact that high corn prices actually help production in third world economies - Mexico is a great example of a corn industry being squashed by nafta and cheap US corn.<BR/><BR/>I understand the thrust of the argument revolves around the near term, 5 years out, granted. But keep in mind that corn goes into everything. Roughly 90% of all products in your supermarket, cosmetics, etc, included, have corn in them in one form or another. But my broccoli doesn't have corn in it, neither do my neighbors tomatoes. Nor does the guy down the road doing 70 acres of grain with horse-drawn tools. Certainly corn subsidies in the farm and energy bills are a problem. If ethanol was not subsidized, it would not be economically feasible, partly because of it's poor NEV (net energy value). <BR/><BR/>So again, switchgrass, hemp, and algae are better sources - though development is being sorted out yet. As it is, current refineries can't get enough corn to run at full capacity, which makes their margins very tight and borderline not economically viable. Sure we need to end the subsidies, and we can do this through policy (progressive politics very important), but also real economics and science are already coming through and will slow the whole process down and bring reality to light and eventually shift policy. Not to mention that corn production in the midwest US likely may collapse altogether in our lifetime to a dried up aquifer - what do we do then?<BR/><BR/>I do appreciate the real effort you are making here, but I think the notion of putting the problems of food scarcity on current corn based ethanol is far to narrow a scope to be looking at this. It fails to take in all the other factors of economics, technology development, a historical context of the industrial age itself, and the root of energy descent solutions - small and local. We can't view this through a globalized lens of feeding the world, a nice idea that just ain't gonna happen. We can't apply globalization ideas to a globalization problem - we should focus on what we can do to feed (and power and clothe) our direct local community and work outward from there. Just for the record, I am voting for John Edwards.riverbirdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512672669673856369noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-12587894185898539852008-01-10T07:32:00.000-08:002008-01-10T07:32:00.000-08:00Stephen, I'm glad you looked at Daharja's profile ...Stephen, I'm glad you looked at Daharja's profile and wrote this. Thank you.<BR/><BR/>Daharja, can we distinguish here between two kinds of "help" - one being the American model of sending its economic crap, its military and occasional self-interested foreign aid, and the other being the kind of help that would be offered if we got our military the hell out of other people's countries, stopped consuming like pigs and exporting globalization. <BR/><BR/>There's a children's song here that I grew up with that has the lines "Some kind of help is the kind of help/That helping's all about/And some kind of help is the kind of help/We all can do without."<BR/><BR/>Not to make light of this, but it makes perfect sense to me that nearly all the world would feel that they could gladly do very well without the help America has been offering. But might we also acknowledge that there are things we can do to make our role in the world better, to do less harm, if not more good?<BR/><BR/>Sharonjewishfarmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17547121621115074866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-24601344470162728082008-01-10T06:11:00.000-08:002008-01-10T06:11:00.000-08:00Daharja-Last night after responding to your commen...Daharja-<BR/><BR/>Last night after responding to your comments, I checked out your profile and saw that you live in Afghanistan. that knowledge, combined with what I perceived as anger in your post, really stuck in my mind all night.<BR/><BR/>I've never been to Afghanistan so, despite the stories in our media, I really have no idea what's really going on there, this despite my government's militaristic meddlings there over the past years. I can, however, easily imagine how a Afghanistan-based writer could speak of US arrogance - on world aid, or anything else for that matter.<BR/><BR/>Furthermore, I too agree with many of the illnesses you assign to the US.<BR/><BR/>With all that in mind, I am sitting here this morning, wondering as a US citizen and resident, what can I be doing to ameliorate the situation? <BR/><BR/>Shortly, after considering the situation for a bit, I realize that what I should be doing is just what I have been doing, namely, using far less resources, fossil energy chief among them, growing food locally while sharing the knowledge and bounty with whomever else might be interested, as well as speaking out against my government's innane and diabolical schemes for world hegemony via resource confisgation, both militarily and economically. To do this does not constitute world aid from the US. Rather it's just one person trying not to take more than his fair share, which on a national scale, is certainly one of the US' main problems. I can't fix much of anything the rest of my country does without first fixing what I do, but I'm taking care of the latter to the best of my ability, and hoping folks around me take notice and then take action themselves.<BR/><BR/>Thanks to the extensive profile you have put up on yourself, I get the idea that you are actively and constructively trying to add to the quality of life around you for everybody on this planet to the best of your ability. (Sorry, I don't have much of any profile posted anywhere that I could point to right now myself, but I'd like to think I'm contributing towards making the world a better place too.) The Internet is a great tool for colaboration and sharing of ideas and knowledge, between people, communities, or in our case here, countries. If anything, the Net breaks down international borders too and lets us see that we are really a world community versus merely a collection of countries. <BR/><BR/>I thank you for sharing your comments. Reminding me as they do of the terrible mess that we have made ("we" being defined as broadly or as narrow as you wish), they'll motivate me to work twice as hard today.<BR/><BR/>Stephen B.<BR/>suburban MassachusettsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com