Comments on Casaubon's Book: A Plan to Limit Foreclosures

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2009-10-29T20:47:40.587-07:00

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2009-09-18T03:25:30.853-07:00

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2009-05-22T17:38:49.130-07:00

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2009-03-26T07:26:00.000-07:00

希望大家都會非常非常幸福~
「朵朵小語‧優美的眷戀在這個世界上，最重要的一件事，就是好好愛自己。好好愛自己，你的眼睛才能看見天空的美麗，耳朵才能聽見山水的清音。好好愛自己，你才能體會所有美好的東西，所有的文字與音符才能像清泉一樣注入你的心靈。好好愛自己，你才有愛人的能力，也才有讓別人愛上你的魅力。而愛自己的第一步，就是切斷讓自己覺得黏膩的過去，以無沾無滯的輕快心情，大步走向前去。愛自己的第二步，則是隨時保持孩子般的好奇，願意接受未知的指引；也隨時可以拋卻不再需要的行囊，一路雲淡風輕。親愛的，你是天地之間獨一無二的旅人，在陽光與月光的交替之中瀟灑獨行 .............................................................................................................
有時，你覺得痛。胃痛的時候，接受它，承認這個疼痛是你的身體的一部份，與它和平共處。心痛的時候，接受它，承認這個經驗是你的生命的一部份，與它和平共處。抗拒痛的存在，只會讓它更要證明它的存在，於是你就更痛。所以，.無論你有多麼不喜歡痛的感覺，還是要接納這個痛的事實。與你的痛站在同一邊，不逃避，不閃躲，不再與你的痛爭執，如此，你的痛才會漸漸不再胡鬧，才會乖乖平息下去。.................

Nice Article.

2007-10-31T11:56:00.000-07:00

Nice Article.

FFZFaz Magnific!

2007-10-31T11:29:00.000-07:00

FFZFaz Magnific!

Wonderful blog.

2007-10-30T06:17:00.000-07:00

Wonderful blog.

Hello all!

2007-10-30T02:25:00.000-07:00

Hello all!

Nice Article.

2007-10-29T23:12:00.000-07:00

Nice Article.

Hello all!

2007-10-28T07:37:00.000-07:00

Hello all!

Thanks to author.

2007-10-27T13:01:00.000-07:00

Thanks to author.

Wonderful blog.

2007-10-27T12:12:00.000-07:00

Wonderful blog.

Nice Article.

2007-10-26T12:32:00.000-07:00

Nice Article.

Hello all!

2007-10-26T12:14:00.000-07:00

Hello all!

KaBcaL actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm ...

2007-10-26T12:00:00.000-07:00

KaBcaL actually, that's brilliant. Thank you. I'm going to pass that on to a couple of people.

7cdDsC Nice Article.

2007-10-26T11:01:00.000-07:00

7cdDsC Nice Article.

RtotB8 Your blog is great. Articles is interesting...

2007-10-26T00:47:00.000-07:00

RtotB8 Your blog is great. Articles is interesting!

Not all of the trillion dollars in ARMs are going ...

2007-10-12T17:31:00.000-07:00

Not all of the trillion dollars in ARMs are going to default, certainly not all in the same year, and the horizon isn't as bad in the following time frames. So a bailout wouldn't be quite that bad. But if more than a few percent of them default in any one year, a lot of banks are going to collapse, and at the very least that will mean the FDIC will be paying large bailouts out of the tax coffers. One attitude that will sway a lot of DC folk is that it will be a bailout now or a bailout later. But yeah, it will be ugly either way.

Company houses are a good economic idea in many cases, I know some big companies use them, universities usually offer that for grad students and such too. But they tend not to be very long term solutions. I don't know anyone that stays in that situation more than a few years. Having your employer be your landlord too, kinda sucks, Ill bet, too much opportunity for systemic abuse.

And as I understand it anonymous, it isn't usually the lenders that are taking a bath on the mortgage collapses. They've re-sold the mortgages to someone else, and typically badly obscured the risks involved, and the corporate risk accounting system nodded, winked, touched their nose and looked away. Now no one trusts the risk ratings and their is a credit crisis. The first casualties back in late August were a bunch of little German Banks that went under, turns out they'd bought up all kinds of bogus British mortgages that went south. Its a weird, weird global economic system, and sometimes who gets shafted when things blow up is highly counter-intuitive. The housing foreclosure crisis in the US might wind up destroying Brazil, or the aluminum industry, or the American Heart Association or something.

-Brian M.

If the mortages are going to be forgiven, they won...

2007-10-12T07:02:00.000-07:00

If the mortages are going to be forgiven, they won't be repaid. Of course, in many cases they aren't going to repaid anyway. The lenders are going to take a bath either way. If people get to remain in their homes, there is a little less dislocation in society, that's all.

I don't see it happening.

MEA, some sort of mortgage forgiveness might work,...

2007-10-11T13:50:00.000-07:00

MEA, some sort of mortgage forgiveness might work, but who's going to pay for it?
If you had the funds, refinancing these to a 0% loan like Habitat for Humanity does would probably be fair enough (perhaps with some caveat that the owner has to have lived in the house a certain amount of time or not own more than one house) and certainly a moral option, but where's the money going to come from? The feds don't have a savings account, though there are some states that do, and perhaps those states can and will do something for their people. If taxes (and I include inflation as a tax) go up to pay for this, how many more people will that put out of their homes, owners and renters? There's 1 trillion dollars of ARMS due to reset in the next eighteen months. Just to bail out those people and none of the others will cost us each over $3,000. (Did I do that right? 1 trillion divided by 3 hundred-million . . .) That'd be more than a third of our yearly gross income. That's a huge bite. (Now if you could somehow get the feds to cut spending in other areas mortgage help might be feasible, but we know that's not likely.)

State based solutions are likely more affordable: like I said, a few states have surplus acounts, and as Brian pointed out the problem has different shapes in different areas. But then I'm almost always in favor of solving the problem through the politicians you can go yell at when they do something stupid than those who are thousands of miles away. In urban areas, allowing people in single family zoned areas to rent out rooms might cut down on forclosures.

Brian, one option to get people into better housing situations for the modern 2-3 year employment situation might be the old company house idea. Teton County (Jackson Hole) is doing that for their employees because otherwise the employees can't afford to live there, and Haliburton built a hotel to house their workers here. You'd have to make it tax positive for companies to do it in most areas, and maybe model it off of COBRA in that the company couldn't just fire and evict you, but you'd have the option to rent for six months, or something similar.

It'd be nice, and helpful, if we could get our states to give up the two heartbeats/room laws, too. I understand why those laws were passed, but they're going to make things worse for families in the years to come.

Good luck on rainfall and snowfall!Also, one more ...

2007-10-11T09:13:00.000-07:00

Good luck on rainfall and snowfall!

Also, one more thing to expand upon Robyn and Boysmom's points.

One of our Ethics Bowl cases this year is about the Payday Loans industry. A huge chunk of the problem, in California AND Indiana is predatory loaning. The upscale outfits target well-off folk and try to get them into the lifestyle of condo flipping, and get them to buy more house than they can really afford, and use gimmicky tricks like ARMs or teaser rates. As Buckaroo says, these aren't inherently wrong, they can be good ideas in some very specific situations. But they are wrong for most of the people who use them and the lenders zogging well know it (even if they don't pass that information on to the mortgage markets). And this is a big part of what overheats and drives up the prices in the active markets.

But the same basic thing happens in different form to the low-scale market too. They get seduced into a cycle of using credit cards or payday loans, occasionally when things are tight, like for unexpected medical co-pays near the end of a month, or Christmas. And once you take a nibble, the system is designed to make you use it again and again. 91% of people who use payday loans, use them 5 or more months a year. And revolving credit card debt and refinancing scams are almost as bad, and even pushier.

The banking system is leveraged to the hilt, and in bed with predatory lenders. And a lot of our problems are reaping the consequences of the predators' success.

Brian M.

Lisa, I'll happily hope for a good 100" base in th...

2007-10-11T08:36:00.000-07:00

Lisa, I'll happily hope for a good 100" base in the Sierras; if you could spare a kind thought for the Wasatch and Uintas in exchange, I would be obliged to you.

My father asked about local holidays; I told him the happiest one for me was the opening day of ski season, as it meant there was enough of a snowpack that if the spring run-off didn't come too early or too warm, the reservoirs would fill and the artesians could recharge a bit -- and I could have showers in the summer, and with raised beds and ollas I could even keep my veg beds going.

Thanks Brian for your comment, that was illuminati...

2007-10-11T08:33:00.000-07:00

Thanks Brian for your comment, that was illuminating. I guess I just see the bubble areas where it is the huge increase in values as "the problem", but you're right, it isn't that way all across the nation.

One real problem is that the housing situation and...

2007-10-11T07:22:00.000-07:00

One real problem is that the housing situation and its problems just work differently from place to place.

In some places it is people who always thoughtthe market was going up who are in trouble. They think of there house as part place-to-live and part investment. When the investment side tanks they are stuck, or walk away. There is a real problem with bailing out investors, it screws with the incentive system.

But that's not how it is here. Southern Indiana has the second highest foreclosure rate in the country, even though the market isn't over-heated and is much cheaper. 415,000 would be a palace here, not "house-poor." The problem are job-loss, medical bills, and income squeezes. The people two houses up from us were evicted, from a (probably, about) 70,000$ home. Their house hadn't even lost value, they just couldn't pay for it anymore. Were they foolish to buy it at the terms they did? I doubt it, they probably could affords it when they got it. But things happen. Their house wasn't in a cul-de-sac to begin with, and they could still rent this year, but I seem to recall it was a rental property on skid row, and it probably costs almost as much (or more) than the house payments they couldn't afford, and they'll probably be homeless or squatting or have givent eh kids to the grandparents or something in a year or two unless they get a turn of good luck. Certainly our house payments are less than our rental payments in the same town were (although we weren't renting on skid row). Here it isn't the folk in the nice houses foreclosing, their jobs tend to be more stable and keep up with inflation better, and they have more cushion, its the folk trying to get out of the trailer parks. And there are still many empty houses in our neighborhood, because the owners would rather keep them empty than to sell them quite as low as the poor folk in the trailer parks can afford to buy them. Tonight we'll dine with two other families who just moved out of the trailer parks for the first time this year, crossing their fingers that they can keep the little cheap houses they've bought. And one of them is an IT systems administrator at a local factory.

Honestly, no one can really afford a 30 year, or even 20 year mortgage any more, even fixed rate, even with low terms. Even if you can make the monthlies - this year. Because no jobs are stable over a 20-30 year horizon anymore. Certainly job incomes in real purchasing parity power aren't. Especially this 20-30 year horizon. Any business model that makes sense now in a (fairly) cheap-energy economy won't make sense later in an expensive energy economy. In a sense, ala Buckaroo, the problem is that no one can give any investor, no matter how well informed, an honest appraisal of the risks over the 20-30 year horizon, because the whole frickin society and economy is at real risk, rather than individuals being "risks."

Now Indiana isn't the same as California or even Idaho, so I don't know what the solution is. part of what is so frustrating about housing and the dollar, is that it is so out of whack in differetn parts of the US. But a well-crafted policy needs to help folk out of the trailer parks and into empty houses, as well as discouraging investors from over-inflating prices in overheated markets.

-Brian M.

Hi, Boysmom. Well, given that the economy is going...

2007-10-11T06:08:00.000-07:00

Hi, Boysmom.

Well, given that the economy is going to tank anyway, why not come up with a scheme where by people who can't manage the mortage get to keep the house. The lenders will take a bath, and it isn't "fair" to people who paid for their house, but we'll have fewer dislocated people.

I can only speak for my local area, but while the people with grand houses can (if they can sell) move into something smaller or rent, the people I'm seeing have reached the point where they are so streched that coming up with 1st month/last month is beyond them. There is very little affordable rental around here.

Aside from that, I think about the children and they fact that the last thing they need is the stress of a move.

MEA