tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post2146093532687029370..comments2024-03-26T02:19:12.080-07:00Comments on Casaubon's Book: Busted: What the Economy and Peak Oil Have To Do With Each Otherjewishfarmerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17547121621115074866noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-88957087054651916582010-11-07T15:04:43.745-08:002010-11-07T15:04:43.745-08:00Advice in old age is foolish; for what can be more...Advice in old age is foolish; for what can be more absurd than to increase our provisions for the road the nearer we approach to our journey's end. <br />[url=http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978590406]Watches[/url]<br /><a href="http://www.blurty.com/users/chopardhappy/" rel="nofollow">Watches</a>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-53002455529077616892009-05-22T17:44:56.458-07:002009-05-22T17:44:56.458-07:00禮服店 ,酒店小姐 ,酒店經紀 ,酒店兼差,酒店打工, 酒店上班,酒店經紀PRETTY GI...<A HREF="http://blog.udn.com/lulala8882002" REL="nofollow" TITLE="禮服店">禮服店</A> ,<A HREF="http://blog.udn.com/lulala8882002" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店小姐">酒店小姐</A> ,<A HREF="http://blog.udn.com/lulala8882002" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店經紀">酒店經紀</A> ,<A HREF="http://blog.udn.com/lulala8882002" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店兼差">酒店兼差</A>,<A HREF="http://blog.udn.com/lulala8882002" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店打工">酒店打工</A>, <A HREF="http://blog.udn.com/lulala8882002" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店上班">酒店上班</A>,酒店經紀PRETTY GIRL <A HREF="http://www.taipeilady.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="台北酒店經紀人">台北酒店經紀人</A> ,<A HREF="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!qZ9n..6QEhhc0LkItOBm" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店經紀">酒店經紀</A> 酒店兼差PRETTY GIRL<A HREF="http://www.mashow.org" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店公關">酒店公關</A> 酒店小姐 彩色爆米花<A HREF="http://blog.xuite.net/jkl338801/blog" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店兼職">酒店兼職</A>,酒店工作 彩色爆米花<A HREF="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!BIBoU5SeBRs21nb_ajFpncbTqXds" REL="nofollow" TITLE="禮服店">禮服店</A>, <A HREF="http://mypaper.pchome.com.tw/news/thomsan/3/1310065116/20080905040949" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店上班">酒店上班</A>,酒店工作 PRETTY GIRL<A HREF="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!rybqykeeER6TH3AKz1HQ5grm/" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店喝酒">酒店喝酒</A>酒店上班 彩色爆米花<A HREF="http://mypaper.pchome.com.tw/news/jkl338801" REL="nofollow" TITLE="台北酒店">台北酒店</A>酒店小姐 PRETTY GIRL<A HREF="http://www.mashow.org" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店上班">酒店上班</A>酒店打工PRETTY GIRL<A HREF="http://www.tpangel.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店打工">酒店打工</A>酒店經紀 彩色爆米花<A HREF="http://blog.xuite.net/jkl338801/blog" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店兼差">酒店兼差</A>,<A HREF="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!BIBoU5SeBRs21nb_ajFpncbTqXds" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店">酒店</A>,<A HREF="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!BIBoU5SeBRs21nb_ajFpncbTqXds" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店經紀">酒店經紀</A>,<A HREF="http://www.mashow.org" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店經紀">酒店經紀</A>,<A HREF="http://www.mashow.org" REL="nofollow" TITLE="經紀公司">經紀公司</A>,<A HREF="http://www.taipeilady.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="經紀公司">經紀公司</A>,<A HREF="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!BIBoU5SeBRs21nb_ajFpncbTqXds" REL="nofollow" TITLE="經紀公司">經紀公司</A>,<A HREF="http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!qZ9n..6QEhhc0LkItOBm" REL="nofollow" TITLE="經紀公司">經紀公司</A>,<A HREF="http://blog.udn.com/lulala8882002" REL="nofollow" TITLE="經紀公司">經紀公司</A>,<A HREF="http://www.mashow.org" REL="nofollow" TITLE="經紀公司">經紀公司</A>,<A HREF="http://goodbaby.webdiy.com.tw/index.asp?lang=1" REL="nofollow" TITLE="童裝批發">童裝批發</A>,<A HREF="http://goodbaby.webdiy.com.tw/index.asp?lang=1" REL="nofollow" TITLE="童裝GAP">童裝GAP</A>,<A HREF="http://www.tpangel.com" REL="nofollow" TITLE="酒店經紀">酒店經紀</A>,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-4842217834489046292007-09-06T16:36:00.000-07:002007-09-06T16:36:00.000-07:00Rebekka, don't believe the marketing hype. "partic...Rebekka, don't believe the marketing hype. "particles bigger than 1 Angstrom" would include water molecules.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-59281496190416611762007-09-05T11:36:00.000-07:002007-09-05T11:36:00.000-07:00Sure borrow what you want. I usually approach it ...Sure borrow what you want. I usually approach it from over-valuation too. If an item is overvalued, or even just fairly, but highly-valued then people with insufficient earning just can't buy it. The problem is when something is highly valued AND the system relies on people buying it (like say transportation to work, or medical care, or lots of consumer goods). Then over- or high- valuation, becomes an earning crisis, because it hurts not just the individual families, but the system that relied on families being able to provide things for themselves and still consume adequately. But LOTS of current US problems fit this basic pattern (including the housing meltdown.)<BR/><BR/>In a sense, capitalism leaves the job of reproductive labor to the families (and to some extent the government) and focuses instead on productive labor. But if the families get screwed enough the means of reproduction can fall into disarray impinging on the means of production as well. Consider, societies with falling population, or where out-migration brain-drain hurt the replenishment of some category of workers, or simply where families are falling apart sociologically and this leads to all kinds of dysfunction. A homesteader is essentially someone who tries to opt out of productive labor as much as possible, typically because they think reproductive labor is hard enough. (Also notice that as the standards for what is considered normal in a society get more burdensome, the job of reproducing them from generation to generation becomes more burdensome). One strategy would be to stop doing wage work until wages increase enough to allow reproductive labor. But more recently the rich will simply take over and manage the means of reproduction as well as the means of production (often in the form of managed benefits). If our families are falling apart, rather than paying enough wages to allow families to function well, simply takeover the functions of families as the families fail at them. <BR/><BR/>On land and real-estate. I think there is all kinds of deep stuff going on here. The issue isn't just partially-conscious sense of the land. The medievals really valued land, the US hasn't for a while, it's valued location. Look at the mantra of real estate, "location, location, location." The vast majority of the "value" of a piece of real estate is not the land itself, or the structures on it, but the location of the land and structures. Just how valuable is a piece of land with a free standing house, within a long but doable commute of many desirable jobs and shopping venues? Well as the jobs move over seas, the price of the commute increases, and the stuff at those stores becomes less affordable, the "location" value of the land drops considerably. If you feel like cities are the only game in town, and apartments are not acceptible, you'll pay through the nose for an ex-urb house, and this is a high-valuation, but not necessarily an over-valuation. But the moment the relationship to the city is not so essential, paying the huge location premium starts looking foolish. My guess is the housing bubble is mostly a result of bubble-over-valuation, and not-enough decent entry level jobs, but its possible that part of the story is the beginnings of disenchantment with urbanization. But I'd love to see your take on it, your usually really good at that kind of stuff.<BR/>-Brian M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-26134041199922849362007-09-05T06:09:00.000-07:002007-09-05T06:09:00.000-07:00Brian, I think your analysis of the earnings crisi...Brian, I think your analysis of the earnings crisis elements of this is right on - very good stuff. Most people approach it from the perspective of overvaluation, including me - I'd honestly not, until this moment, thought to argue it as another issue of basic inequity. I'd been meaning to write a post suggesting that a part of the bubble was based on a un-conscious (under conscious) sense of the innate value of land - do you mind if I borrow some elements of your analysis (with proper credits of course?). Very nice stuff.<BR/><BR/>For those of you enduring serious drought, you'll probably lead the rest of us in some of the changes that need to be made. But I wish it was for a less miserable reason.<BR/><BR/>Rebekka, thanks for the information about public transport. Do you know if there has been an overall net drop in gas usage?<BR/><BR/>Sharonjewishfarmerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17547121621115074866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-26802420267278299212007-09-04T13:30:00.000-07:002007-09-04T13:30:00.000-07:00I tried to explain some of this stuff to an econom...I tried to explain some of this stuff to an economist friend, who is an optimist but believes that US wealth distributions are getting more skewed.<BR/><BR/>Is the end of August a liquidity crisis (Bob Diamond's position) or a solvency crisis, related to a credit crunch (Roubini, Staniford and Krugman's line)?<BR/><BR/>We can fight back and forth, but as Musashi argued way down in the comments, in a lot of ways the credit crisis is really an earnings crisis in disguise. No one should be getting into a house more than 4-6 times their yearing earnings, but that has priced out everyone in many sub- and ex-urban markets since the 70s, and especially since 1999, so we've gone to ever more exotic and unsound credit practices, so as not to dry up the all important housing sector.<BR/><BR/>In other words, this particular wrinkle can be explained in terms of increasing wealth inequality, as easily as it it can be explained in Peaknik terms. Normal Americans can no longer afford to own homes in many markets, but the US economy can't afford for normal Americans not to try to afford homes. Growing inequality can drive the process as easily as demand destruction can.<BR/><BR/>Worse - the housing market really took off in late 1999 and early 2000 as it tried to absorb money fleeing the impending and on going dot.com bubble. US housing assets doubled in value from 1999 to 2007, at a time when the rest of the economy, was, shall we say not doubling. The easiest way for teh economy to cope with a bubble bursting is to create a new bubble somewhere else, but that is terribly destructive to the new sector when the bubble pops a few years later. One real danger here, (according to the much brighter commentors on Oildrum) is that the hot capital fleeing the mortgage/derivitives meltdown, will flee to the alternative energy/infrastructure sector. See Eric Janzen at iTulip. That might look like a good thing in alternative energy (lots of capital pouring in finally), but it also distorts things way off true values, and leads to a bubble popping in a few years.<BR/><BR/>However this plays out it will have more complicated results that just furthing the gap between rich and poor in America which has been growing badly for a long time.<BR/><BR/>-Brian M.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-12471756232735822082007-09-03T13:20:00.000-07:002007-09-03T13:20:00.000-07:00bedouina, we're also dealing with drought conditio...bedouina, we're also dealing with drought conditions and a strained electrical system here in Salt Lake City. We have Coolaroo solar shades over the exteriors of the windows on the south and west sides of our house; in combination with solar film (on the storm windows over the original windows in the old part of the house) and low-e Energy Star windows in the new part, they make a tremendous difference: we kept a 1200 square-foot home 20 degrees cooler with one evaporative cooler.<BR/><BR/>When we have our roof replaced, we mean to add attic foil and a solar-powered whole-house fan, but that won't happen until next year at the earliest: the big expense for this year is the replacement of our fifty-year-old boiler.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10709913574859582445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-48010669382889978242007-09-03T01:36:00.000-07:002007-09-03T01:36:00.000-07:00To Bedounia:Worksman in New York makes a lot of hu...To Bedounia:<BR/><BR/>Worksman in New York makes a lot of human powered cargo haulers. Google 'em.<BR/><BR/>Poor people are generally not poor because they are frugal. They are poor because they want to spend like they are rich. I live near a housing project - these people are very poor at budgeting, and generally living within their income. They spend incredible amounts on luxuries and come ask me to "borrow" (that is, give them)money, because they know I live within my income (which isn't a lot more than theirs). I'm going to stop answering the door soon....<BR/><BR/>DKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-88111523658136589072007-09-02T20:41:00.000-07:002007-09-02T20:41:00.000-07:00Also from Australia, and I have to disagree with t...Also from Australia, and I have to disagree with this analysis from Matthew Simmons:<BR/>"Matthew Simmons, at ASPO this year, observed that demand destruction simply wasn't happening in places like Australia and Kenya, where rising gas prices resulted in people cutting back on other things."<BR/><BR/>Public transport use in Melbourne, where I live, has <A HREF="http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/gridlock-choking-life-out-of-city/2007/05/26/1179601737298.html" REL="nofollow">grown over 18% in two years</A>, most of which is due to the increasing cost of petrol, or gas as you call it over there.<BR/><BR/>And I wish people would stop being put off recycled water by scare campaigns about "drinking other people's birth control pills" etc - the fact is that reverse osmosis filtration (which is what is used to 'recycle' water - which after all has been recycled millions of times before anyway, since it's a closed system!) is incredibly effective and removes particles larger than 1 <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angstrom" REL="nofollow">angstrom</A> which is much, much smaller than any left-over bits of birth control pills or viagra that might end up in the water.<BR/><BR/>And when you compare the overall environmental costs of recycling water with, say, the costs of a desalination plant, it's a far better option.<BR/><BR/>These sort of scare campaigns are usually instituted by someone who opposes water recycling for political reasons, and feeds on the fears of people who don't understand how water is recycled.From the lion's mouthhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08269847882599124126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-1435542205325281932007-09-02T19:31:00.000-07:002007-09-02T19:31:00.000-07:00As an Australian couple with two young children, w...As an Australian couple with two young children, we're sensible enough to see the writing on the wall. Our leaders keep telling us our country is just in 'drought', but its climate change, pure and simple. <BR/><BR/>Major cities Sydney and Melbourne are set to run out of water in the next 10 years without major water recycling projects coming online and, as we don't fancy drinking other people's recycled viagra and birth control pills, we're leaving the city and will be buying land further south where water is not an issue. I'm hanging up my coat as atertiary industry worker, and returning to the land, to provide our own food, water, and energy, while my husband will continue to work in his job to provide us with modern, 'comfort' needs.<BR/><BR/>We're hoping to survive transition. But as for those in these massive Australian cities, I really don't think the outlook is good.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-64444734416762917572007-09-02T16:24:00.000-07:002007-09-02T16:24:00.000-07:00Awnings. Californians and others in hot climates n...Awnings. Californians and others in hot climates need to re-install awnings. Awnings are the best way to protect your windows from collecting solar heat in the summer. If you don't have overhanging roof eaves then awnings are the next best thing.<BR/><BR/>If awnings are too expensive, then hang bamboo shades on the OUTSIDE of the windows. I saw this a lot on a recent trip to Portland, OR.Leila Abu-Sabahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14161833022292457787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-73075269995062651482007-09-02T16:10:00.000-07:002007-09-02T16:10:00.000-07:00Reuters quoted an official in California as saying...Reuters quoted an official in California as saying that "conservation is the only option we have".<BR/><BR/>I worry for the people who did not power down intentionally and slowly, and now find themselves forced to do so fast and hard. How many, strapped for cash for gas, may leave their air conditioner turned to 80 without realizing how much heat is pouring through the uninsulated windows, etc?feonixrifthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09566997057206434751noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-76996507208025017842007-09-02T14:08:00.000-07:002007-09-02T14:08:00.000-07:00In a previous thread I *think* I recall discussing...In a previous thread I *think* I recall discussing how to get handicapped kids onto bikes/tandem bikes. We were trying to imagine how we could get our family around by bike when one large child doesn't have the judgment or physical coordination to ride on his own.<BR/><BR/>I just saw something on Craigslist in SF CA that looks ideal:<BR/><BR/>http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/bik/410141480.html<BR/><BR/>It's a two wheeled tandem (wheels side by side, like the back of a trike) with a back support on the seat that includes straps. It also has a luggage rack! The kid can peddle or not - one version seems to just have a platform instead of pedals.<BR/><BR/>There's no manufacturer name listed - I wonder if this is a custom adaptation. They call it an "adaptive" trailer - meaning for handicapped kids.<BR/><BR/>This goes on my serious wish list.Bedouinahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00214561733659157727noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8221748.post-14190628533098198872007-09-02T13:49:00.000-07:002007-09-02T13:49:00.000-07:00Both you and No Impact Man model how to live on le...Both you and No Impact Man model how to live on less energy. If enough of us start taking "eccentric" actions like hanging the laundry on a line, walking to shopping, maybe washing the clothes in the tub or installing a compost toilet, then such measures will become more acceptable.<BR/><BR/>I did a tub full of laundry yesterday and hung it on a newly installed line. It was a workout to stomp the laundry a la No Impact Man, and I laughed to imagine my children reporting on me to their teachers at school. But we are facing a severe water shortage, drought and severe power emergency here in California. They're putting the southern part of the state on extreme water rationing and they're asking us all to cut back on power drastically to avoid involuntary blackouts.<BR/><BR/>So how eccentric is it to try something that might mitigate the shortages?<BR/><BR/>Composting, recycling and carrying cloth bags have gone from eccentric hippie behavior ('only in Berkeley') to mandated by many cities and/or practiced by the hip and snobby as well as the tie-dyed and shaggy. <BR/><BR/>I love your ideas about reaching out to community, and I may start broaching some of this on our community email list. I think your many other great suggestions about how to face peak oil and economic catastrophe help people plan for and adapt to coming changes. And the more of us who try out "eccentric" behaviors, the faster these behaviors will become normal.<BR/><BR/>(Just last night I described the homemade compost toilet to my husband, who began by laughing but ended by admitting that it all made plenty of sense. If California goes to terrible drought long term, we may very well use a humanure system in our large back yard.)Bedouinahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00214561733659157727noreply@blogger.com